IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jetheo/v198y2021ics0022053121001502.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Snowballing private information

Author

Listed:
  • Sadzik, Tomasz
  • Woolnough, Chris

Abstract

We study informational efficiency in a model of strategic dynamic trade with a monopolistic informed trader. The informed trader continuously receives information about the growth rate of asset dividends and trades against market makers and liquidity traders. We show that when the private information is multi-dimensional, or growth rate of expected dividends is relatively high, private information snowballs over time and the informed trader reveals his information about the asset with delay. This contrasts with the informational efficiency of the workhorse model with one-dimensional information and no growth (see Chau and Vayanos (2008) and Caldentey and Stacchetti (2010)). We also show that the extent of the steady-state excess price volatility is linear in the market's variance about the value.

Suggested Citation

  • Sadzik, Tomasz & Woolnough, Chris, 2021. "Snowballing private information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:198:y:2021:i:c:s0022053121001502
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2021.105333
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022053121001502
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jet.2021.105333?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chakraborty, Archishman & Yilmaz, Bilge, 2004. "Informed manipulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 132-152, January.
    2. Biais, Bruno & Glosten, Larry & Spatt, Chester, 2005. "Market microstructure: A survey of microfoundations, empirical results, and policy implications," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 217-264, May.
    3. Liyan Yang & Haoxiang Zhu, 2020. "Back-Running: Seeking and Hiding Fundamental Information in Order Flows," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1484-1533.
    4. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
    5. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    6. Jean-Charles Rochet & Jean-Luc Vila, 1994. "Insider Trading without Normality," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(1), pages 131-152.
    7. Minh Chau & Dimitri Vayanos, 2008. "Strong-Form Efficiency with Monopolistic Insiders," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(5), pages 2275-2306, September.
    8. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:617-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Back, Kerry & Pedersen, Hal, 1998. "Long-lived information and intraday patterns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 385-402, September.
    10. Ľuboš Pástor & Veronesi Pietro, 2003. "Stock Valuation and Learning about Profitability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1749-1789, October.
    11. Bulkley, George & Tonks, Ian, 1989. "Are U.K. Stock Prices Excessively Volatile? Trading Rules and Variance Bounds Tests," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(398), pages 1083-1098, December.
    12. Allen, Franklin & Gorton, Gary, 1992. "Stock price manipulation, market microstructure and asymmetric information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 624-630, April.
    13. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:5:p:1749-1790 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Gao, Feng & Song, Fengming & Wang, Jun, 2013. "Rational expectations equilibrium with uncertain proportion of informed traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 387-413.
    15. Madrigal, Vicente, 1996. "Non-fundamental Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 553-578, June.
    16. Brennan, Michael J. & Xia, Yihong, 2001. "Stock price volatility and equity premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 249-283, April.
    17. Manzano, Carolina & Vives, Xavier, 2011. "Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 346-369.
    18. Goldstein, Itay & Yang, Liyan, 2019. "Good disclosure, bad disclosure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 118-138.
    19. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1992. "Stock-Price Manipulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 503-529.
    20. Songzi Du & Haoxiang Zhu, 2017. "What is the Optimal Trading Frequency in Financial Markets?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(4), pages 1606-1651.
    21. Jiang Wang, 1993. "A Model of Intertemporal Asset Prices Under Asymmetric Information," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(2), pages 249-282.
    22. Foster, F. Douglas & Viswanathan, S., 1994. "Strategic Trading with Asymmetrically Informed Traders and Long-Lived Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 499-518, December.
    23. Banerjee, Snehal & Green, Brett, 2015. "Signal or noise? Uncertainty and learning about whether other traders are informed," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 398-423.
    24. Grossman, S.J. & Miller, M.H., 1988. "Liquidity And Market Structure," Papers 88, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
    25. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    26. Dimitri Vayanos, 2001. "Strategic Trading in a Dynamic Noisy Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 131-171, February.
    27. Allan G. Timmermann, 1993. "How Learning in Financial Markets Generates Excess Volatility and Predictability in Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 1135-1145.
    28. Marzena Rostek & Marek Weretka, 2012. "Price Inference in Small Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(2), pages 687-711, March.
    29. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1998. "Transaction Taxes and Financial Market Equilibrium," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(1), pages 81-118, January.
    30. Fishman M. J. & Hagerty K. M., 1995. "The Incentive to Sell Financial Market Information," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 95-115, April.
    31. Medrano, Luis Angel & Vives, Xavier, 2001. "Strategic Behavior and Price Discovery," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 32(2), pages 221-248, Summer.
    32. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    33. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    34. Sadzik, Tomasz & Woolnough, Chris, 2021. "Rational destabilization in a frictionless market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    35. Jayant Vivek Ganguli & Liyan Yang, 2009. "Complementarities, Multiplicity, and Supply Information," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(1), pages 90-115, March.
    36. Duffie, Darrell & Garleanu, Nicolae & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2002. "Securities lending, shorting, and pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 307-339.
    37. Antonio Doblas‐Madrid, 2012. "A Robust Model of Bubbles With Multidimensional Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1845-1893, September.
    38. John Y. Campbell & Albert S. Kyle, 1993. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(1), pages 1-34.
    39. Nicolas S. Lambert & Michael Ostrovsky & Mikhail Panov, 2018. "Strategic Trading in Informationally Complex Environments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(4), pages 1119-1157, July.
    40. RenÈ Caldentey & Ennio Stacchetti, 2010. "Insider Trading With a Random Deadline," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 245-283, January.
    41. Baruch, Shmuel, 2002. "Insider trading and risk aversion," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 451-464, October.
    42. Kerry Back & C. Henry Cao & Gregory A. Willard, 2000. "Imperfect Competition among Informed Traders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2117-2155, October.
    43. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    44. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    45. Liyan Yang & Haoxiang Zhu, 2020. "Back-Running: Seeking and Hiding Fundamental Information in Order Flows," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 1484-1533.
    46. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1993. "Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(2), pages 291-311.
    47. Holden, Craig W. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1994. "Risk aversion, imperfect competition, and long-lived information," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 181-190.
    48. Back, Kerry, 1992. "Insider Trading in Continuous Time," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 387-409.
    49. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May.
    50. J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
    51. Allan Timmermann, 1996. "Excess Volatility and Predictability of Stock Prices in Autoregressive Dividend Models with Learning," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(4), pages 523-557.
    52. Itay Goldstein & Liyan Yang, 2015. "Information Diversity and Complementarities in Trading and Information Acquisition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1723-1765, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Zhenhua & Liu, Zhenya & Teka, Hanen & Zhang, Yifan, 2022. "Smart money in China's A-share market: Evidence from big data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    2. Dimitri Vayanos & Jiang Wang, 2012. "Market Liquidity -- Theory and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 18251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Guo, Mng, 2023. "Dampening effect and market efficiency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    4. Umut c{C}etin & Albina Danilova, 2014. "Markovian Nash equilibrium in financial markets with asymmetric information and related forward-backward systems," Papers 1407.2420, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2016.
    5. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2005. "What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?," NBER Working Papers 11803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 579-629, April.
    7. Sastry, Ravi & Thompson, Rex, 2019. "Strategic trading with risk aversion and information flow," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-16.
    8. Xavier Gabaix & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2006. "Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 461-504.
    9. Çetin, Umut & Danilova, Albina, 2016. "Markovian Nash equilibrium in financial markets with asymmetric information and related forward-backward systems," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 63259, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Roberto Monte & Barbara Trivellato, 2009. "An equilibrium model of insider trading in continuous time," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 32(2), pages 83-128, November.
    11. Dan Bernhardt & P. Seiler & B. Taub, 2010. "Speculative dynamics," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 44(1), pages 1-52, July.
    12. Li, Tao, 2007. "Heterogeneous beliefs, asset prices, and volatility in a pure exchange economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1697-1727, May.
    13. Takayama, Shino, 2021. "Price manipulation, dynamic informed trading, and the uniqueness of equilibrium in sequential trading," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    14. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2005. "Predatory Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1825-1863, August.
    15. Gong, Aibo & Ke, Shaowei & Qiu, Yawen & Shen, Rui, 2022. "Robust pricing under strategic trading," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    16. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1998. "Dynamic equilibrium and volatility in financial asset markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 93-127, May.
    17. Marmora, Paul & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2018. "Learning about noise," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 209-224.
    18. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Matteo Formenti, 2014. "Can Market Risk Perception Drive Inefficient Prices? Theory and Evidence," Papers 1409.4890, arXiv.org.
    20. Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2005. "Imperfect Information and Stock Market Volatility," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 173-194, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market microstructure; Insider trading; Multi-dimensional information; Excess volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:198:y:2021:i:c:s0022053121001502. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622869 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.