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Exchangeable capacities, parameters and incomplete theories

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  • Epstein, Larry G.
  • Seo, Kyoungwon

Abstract

The de Finetti Theorem on exchangeable predictive priors is generalized to a framework where preference is represented by Choquet expected utility with respect to a belief function (a special capacity). The resulting model provides behavioral foundations for the decision-maker's subjective theory of the environment in which there are factors common to all experiments (or sources of uncertainty), called parameters, but in which her theory is incomplete in that knowledge of the parameter leaves idiosyncratic factors that vary across experiments in a way that is poorly understood.

Suggested Citation

  • Epstein, Larry G. & Seo, Kyoungwon, 2015. "Exchangeable capacities, parameters and incomplete theories," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 879-917.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:157:y:2015:i:c:p:879-917
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2015.02.010
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marinacci, Massimo & Massari, Filippo, 2019. "Learning from ambiguous and misspecified models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 144-149.
    2. Larry G Epstein & Yoram Halevy, 2019. "Ambiguous Correlation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(2), pages 668-693.
    3. Larry G. Epstein & Hiroaki Kaido & Kyoungwon Seo, 2016. "Robust Confidence Regions for Incomplete Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1799-1838, September.
    4. Hiroaki Kaido & Yi Zhang, 2019. "Robust Likelihood Ratio Tests for Incomplete Economic Models," Papers 1910.04610, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    5. Andrew Ellis, 2021. "Correlation Concern," Papers 2105.13341, arXiv.org.
    6. Larry G Epstein & Yoram Halevy, 2024. "Hard-to-Interpret Signals," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 393-427.
    7. Kojevnikov, Denis & Song, Kyungchul, 2023. "Econometric inference on a large Bayesian game with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(1).
    8. Christoph Kuzmics & Brian W. Rogers & Xiannong Zhang, 2022. "An Ellsberg paradox for ambiguity aversion," Graz Economics Papers 2022-05, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    9. Kojevnikov, Denis & Song, Kyungchul, 2023. "Econometric inference on a large bayesian game with heterogeneous beliefs," Other publications TiSEM aca0631e-4f8a-45c7-af3a-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity; Exchangeability; Maxmin expected utility; Parameters; Repeated experiments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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