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Knightian decision theory and econometric inferences

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  • Bewley, Truman F.

Abstract

An uncertainty averse Knightian decision maker has a set of probability distributions over outcomes and chooses something other than the status quo only if the change increases the expected payoff according to all the distributions. It is possible to define a standardized degree of uncertainty aversion. To each such degree, there corresponds a set of prior distributions over the parameters of a Gaussian linear regression model, these priors being centered on a uniform prior. The set of posterior means corresponding to this set of priors has the same properties as a standard confidence region.

Suggested Citation

  • Bewley, Truman F., 2011. "Knightian decision theory and econometric inferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1134-1147, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:146:y:2011:i:3:p:1134-1147
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tamini, Lota Dabio, 2012. "Optimal quality choice under uncertainty on market development," Working Papers 148589, Structure and Performance of Agriculture and Agri-products Industry (SPAA).
    2. Wei-ling Chen & Leh-chyan So, 2014. "Validation of the Merton Distance to the Default Model under Ambiguity," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Marc-Arthur Diaye & Gleb Koshevoy, 2011. "Random Sets Lotteries and Decision Theory," Documents de recherche 11-09, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    4. Izhakian, Yehuda, 2020. "A theoretical foundation of ambiguity measurement," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    5. Manganelli, Simone, 2023. "Double conditioning: the hidden connection between Bayesian and classical statistics," Working Paper Series 2786, European Central Bank.
    6. Corbae, Dean & Marimon, Ramon, 2011. "Introduction to Incompleteness and Uncertainty in Economics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 775-784, May.
    7. Yehuda Izhakian, 2012. "Ambiguity Measurement," Working Papers 12-01, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    8. Tamini, Lota D., 2012. "Optimal quality choice under uncertainty on market development," MPRA Paper 40845, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Robert W. Dimand, 2018. "Kiyohiko G. Nishimura and Hiroyuki Ozaki: Economics of pessimism and optimism: theory of Knightian uncertainty and its applications," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 124(2), pages 203-205, June.
    10. Yehuda Izhakian & Zur Izhakian, 2015. "Decision making in phantom spaces," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 58(1), pages 59-98, January.
    11. Dlugosch, Dennis & Wang, Mei, 2022. "Ambiguity, ambiguity aversion and foreign bias: New evidence from international panel data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

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