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Long-run credit growth in the US

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  • Durkin, Thomas A.
  • Ord, Keith
  • Walker, David A.

Abstract

The paper explores the long-term income elasticity of consumer and mortgage credit growth since World War II. It also examines other economic factors, to determine whether recent credit use is anomalous. Two-stage least squares show consumer credit income elasticity to be slightly below 1.0, taking other factors into account. A vector autoregressive error correction (VAREC) model for cointegrated variables with unit roots determine short-run and long-run credit impact multipliers which are consistent with the elasticities. Except for 1974-1979, the long-run consumer credit impact multiplier of 0.23 is very close to the debt-income limit that Enthoven projected as long ago as 1957. These results are very different from the simplistic media perspectives.

Suggested Citation

  • Durkin, Thomas A. & Ord, Keith & Walker, David A., 2010. "Long-run credit growth in the US," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(5), pages 383-400, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:62:y::i:5:p:383-400
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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