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Price level versus inflation targeting under heterogeneous expectations: a laboratory experiment

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  • Hommes, Cars
  • Makarewicz, Tomasz

Abstract

Since the 2007 crisis, macroeconomists have been interested in monetary policies that could help with stabilizing inflation and output (Honkapohja, 2015). Two ideas gained particular attention: (i) that inflation should be replaced by the nominal price level (PLT) as the target for the central bank; and (ii) that the central bank should provide explicit guidance about its interest rate rule. We conduct a laboratory experiment to test the validity of these two hypotheses.

Suggested Citation

  • Hommes, Cars & Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2021. "Price level versus inflation targeting under heterogeneous expectations: a laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 39-82.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:182:y:2021:i:c:p:39-82
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2020.11.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes & Tomasz Makarewicz, 2019. "Simple Forecasting Heuristics that Make us Smart: Evidence from Different Market Experiments," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(5), pages 1538-1584.
    10. Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Tomasz Makarewicz, 2017. "Bubble Formation and (In)Efficient Markets in Learning‐to‐forecast and optimise Experiments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 581-609, October.
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    14. Adriana Cornea-Madeira & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2019. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 288-300, April.
    15. Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes, 2012. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 35-64, November.
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    20. Marc P. Giannoni, 2010. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules in a Forward-Looking Model, and Inflation Stabilization versus Price-Level Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 15986, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    27. Cars Hommes & Tomasz Makarewicz & Domenico Massaro & Tom Smits, 2017. "Genetic algorithm learning in a New Keynesian macroeconomic setup," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1133-1155, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jasmina Arifovic & Isabelle Salle & Hung Truong, 2023. "History-Dependent Monetary Regimes: A Lab Experiment and a Henk Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-028/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Salle, Isabelle L., 2023. "What to target? Insights from a lab experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 514-533.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Experimental macroeconomics; Expectations and learning; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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