IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v109y2015icp1-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On divergent dynamics with ordinary least squares learning

Author

Listed:
  • Chatterji, Shurojit
  • Lobato, Ignacio N.

Abstract

This article addresses the stability properties of a simple economy (characterized by a one-dimensional state variable) when the representative agent, confronted by trajectories that are divergent from the steady state, performs transformations in that variable in order to improve forecasts. We find that instability continues to be a robust outcome for transformations such as differencing and detrending the data, the two most typical approaches in econometrics to handle nonstationary time series data. We also find that inverting the data, a transformation that can be motivated by the agent reversing the time direction in an attempt to improve her forecasts, may lead the dynamics to a perfect-foresight path.

Suggested Citation

  • Chatterji, Shurojit & Lobato, Ignacio N., 2015. "On divergent dynamics with ordinary least squares learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:109:y:2015:i:c:p:1-9
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2014.10.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268114002637
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jebo.2014.10.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. In-Koo Cho & Kenneth Kasa, 2015. "Learning and Model Validation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 45-82.
    2. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
    3. Chatterji, Shurojit & Chattopadhyay, Subir, 2000. "Global stability in spite of "local instability" with learning," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 155-165, March.
    4. Seppo Honkapohja, 2001. "Learning Dynamics: Complete and Incomplete Learning," International Economic Association Series, in: Jacques Drèze (ed.), Advances in Macroeconomic Theory, chapter 12, pages 239-254, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Shurojit Chatterji, 2002. "The convergence of least squares learning in stochastic temporary equilibrium models," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 20(4), pages 837-847.
    6. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
    7. Barnett,William A. & Cornet,Bernard & D'Aspremont,Claude & Gabszewicz,Jean & Mas-Colell,Andreu (ed.), 1991. "Equilibrium Theory and Applications," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521392198, September.
    8. Shurojit Chatterji & Ignacio N. Lobato, 2010. "Transformations of the state variable and learning dynamics," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 6(4), pages 385-403, December.
    9. Jan Wenzelburger, 2002. "Global convergence of adaptive learning in models of pure exchange," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 19(4), pages 649-672.
    10. Fuchs, Gerard, 1979. "Is error learning behaviour stabilizing?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 300-317, June.
    11. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 1998. "A model of learning and emulation with artificial adaptive agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 179-207, February.
    12. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1999. "Learning dynamics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 449-542, Elsevier.
    13. Georges, Christophre, 2008. "Staggered updating in an artificial financial market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2809-2825, September.
    14. Bray, Margaret M & Savin, Nathan E, 1986. "Rational Expectations Equilibria, Learning, and Model Specification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1129-1160, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shurojit Chatterji & Ignacio N. Lobato, 2010. "Transformations of the state variable and learning dynamics," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 6(4), pages 385-403, December.
    2. Orlando Gomes, 2010. "Ordinary Least Squares Learning And Nonlinearities In Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 52-84, February.
    3. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 557, Econometric Society.
    4. Julien, Ludovic A., 2003. "Chômage d’équilibre, équilibres multiples et défauts de coordination," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 79(4), pages 523-562, Décembre.
    5. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2006. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), pages 284-309, April.
    6. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Dynamics of beliefs and learning under aL-processes -- the heterogeneous case," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 503-531, January.
    7. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 27, Econometric Society.
    8. Colucci, Domenico & Valori, Vincenzo, 2005. "Error learning behaviour and stability revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, March.
    9. Georges, Christophre, 2003. "Adjustment costs, learning, and indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 101-116, October.
    10. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 190, Society for Computational Economics.
    11. Baranowski, Ryan, 2015. "Adaptive learning and monetary exchange," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-18.
    12. Atanas Christev, 2006. "Learning Hyperinflations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 475, Society for Computational Economics.
    13. Kelly, David L. & Shorish, Jamsheed, 2000. "Stability of Functional Rational Expectations Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 215-250, December.
    14. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    15. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Georges, Christophre, 2008. "Staggered updating in an artificial financial market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2809-2825, September.
    17. Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2003. "Heterogeneous Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 885-906, October.
    18. Heinemann, Maik, 2000. "Adaptive learning of rational expectations using neural networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 1007-1026, June.
    19. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations And Behaviors In Evolving Economies With Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1487-1516, July.
    20. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & Van De Velden, Henk, 2007. "Learning In Cobweb Experiments," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 8-33, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:109:y:2015:i:c:p:1-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.