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Vote choice in the context of lethal police violence: A research note

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  • Reid, Jonathan C.

Abstract

Do police-caused deaths predict presidential vote choice in the US? This study explores the relationship between lethal police violence and vote choice in the 2020 presidential election using individual-level data from Harvard University's Cooperative Election Study (CES), which has been linked with aggregate-level data on police killings, civilian homicide rates, and socioeconomic, political, and public health characteristics. Consistent with the issue ownership theory of voting, this study finds that voters living in areas characterized by lethal police violence are significantly more likely to vote for the Democratic Party above and beyond their individual-level attributes and other contextual conditions. These findings and supplemental analyses raise critical questions concerning the political salience of fatal force in presidential races in the post-2020 era. Findings also support the need for further criminological inquiry into the effects of different forms of violence on American political behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Reid, Jonathan C., 2024. "Vote choice in the context of lethal police violence: A research note," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcjust:v:95:y:2024:i:c:s0047235224001685
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102319
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. García-Montoya, Laura & Arjona, Ana & Lacombe, Matthew, 2022. "Violence and Voting in the United States: How School Shootings Affect Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 116(3), pages 807-826, August.
    2. Morris, Kevin T. & Shoub, Kelsey, 2024. "Contested Killings: The Mobilizing Effects of Community Contact with Police Violence," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 118(1), pages 458-474, February.
    3. Hassell, Hans J. G. & Holbein, John B. & Baldwin, Matthew, 2020. "Mobilize for Our Lives? School Shootings and Democratic Accountability in U.S. Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1375-1385, November.
    4. Ang, Desmond & Tebes, Jonathan, 2024. "Civic Responses to Police Violence," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 972-987, May.
    5. Reny, Tyler T. & Newman, Benjamin J., 2021. "The Opinion-Mobilizing Effect of Social Protest against Police Violence: Evidence from the 2020 George Floyd Protests," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1499-1507, November.
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