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Income growth, ethnic polarization, and political risk: Evidence from international oil price shocks

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  • Brückner, Markus
  • Gradstein, Mark

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of growth in countries’ national incomes on political risk. To address causality, we use the annual growth rate of the international oil price weighted with countries’ average oil net-export GDP shares as an instrument for national income growth. Our instrumental variables analysis yields two main results: (i) income growth has on average a significant negative effect on countries’ political risk; (ii) the marginal effect of income growth on political risk is significantly decreasing in cross-country differences in ethnic polarization, so much so that at high levels of ethnic polarization income growth increases political risk while at low levels of ethnic polarization income growth reduces political risk.

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  • Brückner, Markus & Gradstein, Mark, 2015. "Income growth, ethnic polarization, and political risk: Evidence from international oil price shocks," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 575-594.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:43:y:2015:i:3:p:575-594
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2014.05.005
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2019. "Oil price shocks and Chinese banking performance: Do country risks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 46-53.
    3. He, Zhifang & Sun, Hao, 2024. "The time-varying and asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks on geopolitical risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 942-957.
    4. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2017. "Dynamic relationship of oil price shocks and country risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 571-581.
    5. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yuan, Zihao & Ho, Shan-Ju, 2022. "How does export diversification affect income inequality? International evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 410-421.
    6. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Witthuhn, Stefan, 2017. "Corruption and political stability: Does the youth bulge matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 47-70.
    7. Hong, Yanran & Wang, Lu & Ye, Xiaoqing & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Dynamic asymmetric impact of equity market uncertainty on energy markets: A time-varying causality analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 535-546.
    8. Alexeev, Michael & Zakharov, Nikita, 2022. "Who profits from windfalls in oil tax revenue? Inequality, protests, and the role of corruption," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 472-492.
    9. Manotas-Hidalgo, Beatriz & Pérez-Sebastián, Fidel & Campo-Bescós, Miguel Angel, 2021. "The role of ethnic characteristics in the effect of income shocks on African conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Reza Zamani, 2024. "The Effect of Corruption on Internal Conflict in Iran Using Newspaper Coverage," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 24-43, January.
    11. Chien‐Chiang Lee & Chi‐Chuan Lee & Donald Lien, 2019. "Do country risk and financial uncertainty matter for energy commodity futures?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 366-383, March.
    12. Esra Soyu Yıldırım & Cuma Demirtaş & Munise Ilıkkan Özgür, 2022. "Causality Relationship Between Economic, Financial, Political Risk and Growth: The Case of Turkey," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 165-186, January.
    13. Liu, Chang & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming & Li, Jianping, 2016. "Statistical properties of country risk ratings under oil price volatility: Evidence from selected oil-exporting countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 234-245.
    14. repec:zbw:bofitp:2022_002 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Xiuwen Chen, 2023. "Are the shocks of EPU, VIX, and GPR indexes on the oil-stock nexus alike? A time-frequency analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(48), pages 5637-5652, October.
    16. Phoebe W. Ishak & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2022. "Oil price shocks, protest, and the shadow economy: Is there a mitigation effect?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 298-321, July.
    17. Janus, Thorsten & Riera-Crichton, Daniel, 2015. "Economic shocks, civil war and ethnicity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 32-44.
    18. Alexeev, Michael & Zakharov, Nikita, 2022. "Who profits from windfalls in oil tax revenue? Inequality, protests, and the role of corruption," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 472-492.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Income growth; Political risk; Ethnic polarization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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