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What drives decision makers to follow or ignore forecasting tools - A game based analysis

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  • Lackes, Richard
  • Siepermann, Markus
  • Vetter, Georg

Abstract

Using forecasts is a prerequisite for good decision making but often decision makers ignore the forecasts' outcomes and rely on their personal assessment. This usually leads to worse decisions. But forecasts can also be defective. Thus, it is crucial that decision makers do not rely blindly on forecasts but scrutinize critically the results. The question is under which circumstances decision makers follow or ignore forecasts. Therefore, we conducted a laboratory experiment where decision makers have the choice between two alternatives. The forecast provided gives an advice. But it is manipulated so that it is only partly reliable. Results show that participants do not act optimally. Many decision makers follow the manipulated forecast if for example their performance is dominated by the forecast or if they perceive competition. Hence, gamifying such research may impact the results that can be to some extent reinforced. However, the general meaning is not distorted.

Suggested Citation

  • Lackes, Richard & Siepermann, Markus & Vetter, Georg, 2020. "What drives decision makers to follow or ignore forecasting tools - A game based analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 315-322.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:106:y:2020:i:c:p:315-322
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2019.02.036
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