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The informational role of options markets: Evidence from FOMC announcements

Author

Listed:
  • Du, Brian
  • Fung, Scott
  • Loveland, Robert

Abstract

This paper examines the informational role of equity options trading around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements. We find that information contained in option trades prior to FOMC rate change announcements, measured as implied volatility spread, predicts bank stock returns to a greater degree than does volatility spread prior to non-meeting days. We examine U.S. banks due to their interest rate sensitivity; however, we also show that return predictability around rate changes is reliably stronger in all firms, across all industries that are more interest rate sensitive. We find that return predictability is primarily driven by surprise changes in interest rates that occur during meetings with high degrees of information asymmetry. Finally, we document that volatility spread impounds information about FOMC meetings before that information is reflected in stock prices; this effect is significantly greater during surprise events, suggesting that the options market is an important source of informed trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Du, Brian & Fung, Scott & Loveland, Robert, 2018. "The informational role of options markets: Evidence from FOMC announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 237-256.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:92:y:2018:i:c:p:237-256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.05.013
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jieun Lee & Doojin Ryu, 2019. "The impacts of public news announcements on intraday implied volatility dynamics," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 656-685, June.
    2. Arai, Natsuki, 2023. "The FOMC’s new individual economic projections and macroeconomic theories," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Sangram Keshari Jena & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Amarnath Mitra, 2019. "Put–Call Ratio Volume vs. Open Interest in Predicting Market Return: A Frequency Domain Rolling Causality Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, March.
    4. Scott Fung & Robert Loveland, 2020. "When do informed traders acquire and trade on informational advantage? Evidence from Federal Reserve stress tests," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1459-1485, October.
    5. Gabor Pinter & Chaojun Wang & Junyuan Zou, 2024. "Size Discount and Size Penalty: Trading Costs in Bond Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(7), pages 2156-2190.
    6. Yu, Xiao-Jian & Wang, Zi-Ling & Xiao, Wei-Lin, 2020. "Is the nonlinear hedge of options more effective?—Evidence from the SSE 50 ETF options in China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Müller, Lena Sophia & Glas, Alexander, 2021. "Talking in a language that everyone can understand? Transparency of speeches by the ECB Executive Board," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242364, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Glas, Alexander & Müller, Lena, 2023. "Talking in a language that everyone can understand? Clarity of speeches by the ECB Executive Board," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-073, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Perico Ortiz, Daniel & Schnaubelt, Matthias & Seifert, Oleg, 2023. "A topic modeling perspective on investor uncertainty," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 04/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    10. Chen, Zhang-HangJian & Li, Sai-Ping & Cai, Mei-Ling & Zhong, Li-Xin & Ren, Fei, 2021. "Cross-region risk spillover between the stock and stock index futures markets under exogenous shocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Daniel Perico Ortiz, 2023. "Economic policy statements, social media, and stock market uncertainty: An analysis of Donald Trump’s tweets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 333-367, June.
    12. Huang, Hong-Gia & Tsai, Wei-Che & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2024. "Trading activity of VIX futures and options around FOMC announcements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    13. Soniya Mohil & Reena Nayyar & Archana Patro, 2020. "When is informed trading more prevalent?—An examination of options trading around Indian M&A announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1011-1029, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Options trading; Implied volatility; Federal funds rate; Information efficiency; Banking;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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