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Analyst forecasts and European mutual fund trading

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  • Franck, Alexander
  • Kerl, Alexander

Abstract

This paper addresses the questions whether European mutual fund managers rely on sell-side analyst information and whether this behavior impacts fund performance. Results show that mutual funds significantly increase (decrease) their holdings in stocks when any of the consensus forecast measures increases (decreases) within the quarter prior to the observation period. Furthermore, mutual fund managers primarily attribute high information value to consensus forecast revisions that contain positive information, that are based on a sufficiently high number of inputs, and with more unanimous inputs to the consensus. Finally, following sell-side research seems to be beneficial for mutual fund managers since our results show that stock trades that are in line with analyst forecast revisions significantly outperform trades that are contrary to analyst research.

Suggested Citation

  • Franck, Alexander & Kerl, Alexander, 2013. "Analyst forecasts and European mutual fund trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2677-2692.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:8:p:2677-2692
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.04.008
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    Cited by:

    1. Feng Dong & John A. Doukas, 2019. "The payback of mutual fund selectivity in European markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 25(1), pages 160-180, January.
    2. Galanti, Sébastien & Leroy, Aurélien & Vaubourg, Anne-Gaël, 2022. "Investment and access to external finance in Europe: Does analyst coverage matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Jeffrey Hobbs & Vivek Singh & Madhumita Chakraborty, 2021. "Institutional underperformance: Should managers listen to the sell-side before trading?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 389-410, July.
    4. Guo, Jiaqi & Holmes, Phil & Altanlar, Ali, 2020. "Is herding spurious or intentional? Evidence from analyst recommendation revisions and sentiment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Frey, Stefan & Herbst, Patrick, 2014. "The influence of buy-side analysts on mutual fund trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 442-458.
    6. Gimeno, Ruth & Andreu, Laura & Sarto, José Luis, 2022. "Fund trading divergence and performance contribution," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Alexander Franck & Alexander Kerl, 2014. "The impact of fund characteristics on the use of analyst forecasts," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(2), pages 92-109, April.
    8. Carbó-Valverde, Santiago & Cuadros-Solas, Pedro J. & Rodríguez-Fernández, Francisco, 2020. "Do bank bailouts have an impact on the underwriting business?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    9. Cici, Gjergji & Shane, Philip B. & Yang, Yanhua Sunny, 2017. "Do connections with buy-side analysts inform sell-side analyst research?," CFR Working Papers 17-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mutual fund trading; Sell-side analyst reports; Consensus forecasts; Forecast dispersion; Ownership structure; Mutual fund performance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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