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Operational outages and aggregate uncertainty in the federal funds market

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  • Klee, Elizabeth

Abstract

This paper uses operational problems at depository institutions in sending Fedwire payments as a proxy for aggregate uncertainty in end-of-day Fed account positions and then examines funds market behavior on those days. The results suggest that increased uncertainty is associated with a deviation of the federal funds rate from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC's) target rate; the magnitude depends on the severity of the difficulty, the payment volume of the affected participant, and the time of day. The intraday standard deviation of the federal funds rate is also affected by operational outages. Moreover, extensions to Fedwire are more likely on days with possible outages, and discount window borrowing picks up on these days as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Klee, Elizabeth, 2010. "Operational outages and aggregate uncertainty in the federal funds market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2386-2402, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:10:p:2386-2402
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    2. Luis Gerardo Gage & Raúl Morales-Resendiz & John Arroyo & Jeniffer Rubio & Paolo Barucca, 2022. "Classifying payment patterns with artificial neural networks: an autoencoder approach," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Machine learning in central banking, volume 57, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Eisenbach, Thomas M. & Kovner, Anna & Lee, Michael Junho, 2022. "Cyber risk and the U.S. financial system: A pre-mortem analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 802-826.
    4. Irving Fisher Committee, 2022. "Machine learning in central banking," IFC Bulletins, Bank for International Settlements, number 57.
    5. Neville Arjani & Ronald Heijmans, 2020. "Is there anybody out there? Detecting operational outages from LVTS transaction data," Working Papers 683, DNB.
    6. Bech, Morten & Monnet, Cyril, 2016. "A search-based model of the interbank money market and monetary policy implementation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 32-67.
    7. Foote, Elizabeth, 2014. "Information asymmetries and spillover risk in settlement systems," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 179-190.
    8. Sabetti, Leonard & Heijmans, Ronald, 2021. "Shallow or deep? Training an autoencoder to detect anomalous flows in a retail payment system," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(2).
    9. Heijmans, Ronald & Wendt, Froukelien, 2023. "Measuring the impact of a failing participant in payment systems," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(4).
    10. Nellen, Thomas, 2019. "Intraday liquidity facilities, late settlement fee and coordination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 124-131.
    11. Kopchak, Seth J., 2011. "The liquidity effect for open market operations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3292-3299.

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