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The value of growth: Changes in profitability and future stock returns

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  • Lim, Bryan
  • Sotes-Paladino, Juan
  • Wang, George Jiaguo
  • Yao, Yaqiong

Abstract

We use a simple two-stage dividend growth model to connect profitability growth and firm scale to stock returns. In this framework, both the magnitude and the length of the first-stage growth play a key role in determining returns. Using current profitability growth to estimate magnitude and firm scale as inverse proxy for length, we predict that future returns should increase with current profitability growth but, crucially, the effect should diminish with firm scale. Across a range of empirical tests, we find strong evidence in support of our model determinants and predictions. Our findings are not explained by an array of associated, potentially confounding variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Lim, Bryan & Sotes-Paladino, Juan & Wang, George Jiaguo & Yao, Yaqiong, 2024. "The value of growth: Changes in profitability and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:158:y:2024:i:c:s0378426623002273
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.107036
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    Cited by:

    1. Emilios Galariotis & Joëlle Miffre & Benoît Sévi, 2024. "Editorial for the special issue of the journal of banking & finance on asset pricing and factor investing," Post-Print hal-04528748, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Profitability growth; Firm size; Stock returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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