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Market-consistent valuation of natural catastrophe risk

Author

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  • Beer, Simone
  • Braun, Alexander

Abstract

Natural catastrophe risk is increasingly being covered through alternative capital instead of reinsurance. Since most such instruments do not trade in an active market, their ongoing valuation is a challenge. As a solution, we propose to exploit pricing information embedded secondary market catastrophe bond quotes. Specifically, we use a reduced form model to extract implied Poisson intensities from regularly observed prices. Next, we show that the intensities can be explained by time to maturity and modeled probability of first loss. Along these two dimensions, we estimate smooth intensity surfaces that allow investors to mark illiquid catastrophe risk positions to market.

Suggested Citation

  • Beer, Simone & Braun, Alexander, 2022. "Market-consistent valuation of natural catastrophe risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:134:y:2022:i:c:s0378426621003010
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106350
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    2. Mahshid Peivandi & Mehdi Zeynali & Mahdi Salehi & Ali Paytakhti Oskooe & Younes Badavar Nahandi, 2022. "Developing a Model of Insurance Securitisation in Iranian Environmental Conditions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-18, November.
    3. Sukono & Hafizan Juahir & Riza Andrian Ibrahim & Moch Panji Agung Saputra & Yuyun Hidayat & Igif Gimin Prihanto, 2022. "Application of Compound Poisson Process in Pricing Catastrophe Bonds: A Systematic Literature Review," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-19, July.
    4. Li, Han & Liu, Haibo & Tang, Qihe & Yuan, Zhongyi, 2023. "Pricing extreme mortality risk in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 84-106.
    5. Morton Lane, 2024. "The ILS loss experience: natural catastrophe issues 2001–2020," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 49(1), pages 97-137, January.

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