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Bad bad contagion

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  • Londono, Juan M.

Abstract

This paper proposes a new measure of contagion as the coincidence of large left-tail events in the idiosyncratic disturbances of international stock returns after controlling for their exposure to a global factor. Episodes of bad contagion, especially those involving a large number of countries, are followed by a significant drop in international stock returns. This predictability pattern can be understood as an international transmission effect, as bad contagion only affects countries that did not experience tail events. In addition, the negative effect of bad contagion spills over to real growth, sovereign default risk, and financial stability indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Londono, Juan M., 2019. "Bad bad contagion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:108:y:2019:i:c:s0378426619302274
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.105652
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    2. Nina Tessler & Itzhak Venezia, 2022. "A multicountry measure of comovement and contagion in international markets: definition and applications," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1307-1330, May.
    3. Urom, C. & Ndubuisi, Gideon & Guesmi, K., 2022. "Quantile return and volatility connectedness among Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) and (un)conventional asset," MERIT Working Papers 2022-017, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    4. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Bouri, Elie & Ahmad, Tanveer & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The pricing of bad contagion in cryptocurrencies: A four-factor pricing model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    5. Qian, Biyu & Wang, Gang-Jin & Feng, Yusen & Xie, Chi, 2022. "Partial cross-quantilogram networks: Measuring quantile connectedness of financial institutions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International stock markets; Interconnectedness; Integration; Transmission; Spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

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