IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v106y2019icp305-322.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of government contracts on corporate valuation

Author

Listed:
  • Esqueda, Omar A.
  • Ngo, Thanh
  • Susnjara, Jurica

Abstract

We document significantly lower valuations for government contractors in the United States. While contracting with government agencies reduces firms’ cost of equity, it significantly lowers their sales growth. These findings are contingent on economic conditions; negative valuations dissipate as operating performance improves during economy- and industry-wide recessions. The overall negative valuation effect of government contracts holds only for government contractors in strategically unimportant industries, as strategically important contractors have higher valuations, driven by better operating performance regardless of economic conditions. This is the first study examining the relationship between government procurement and corporate valuation. It also adds to the growing body of literature on politically connected firms by analyzing government contractors as a related‑but‑separate channel of governmental influence on the corporate world.

Suggested Citation

  • Esqueda, Omar A. & Ngo, Thanh & Susnjara, Jurica, 2019. "The effect of government contracts on corporate valuation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 305-322.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:106:y:2019:i:c:p:305-322
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.07.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426619301505
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.07.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Henry He & Lobo, Gerald J. & Wang, Chong & Xie, Hong, 2016. "Customer concentration and corporate tax avoidance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 184-200.
    2. Belo, Frederico & Gala, Vito D. & Li, Jun, 2013. "Government spending, political cycles, and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 305-324.
    3. Eitan Goldman & Jörg Rocholl & Jongil So, 2009. "Do Politically Connected Boards Affect Firm Value?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2331-2360, June.
    4. Eitan Goldman & Jörg Rocholl & Jongil So, 2013. "Politically Connected Boards of Directors and The Allocation of Procurement Contracts," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(5), pages 1617-1648.
    5. Zhuo Chen & Andrea Y. Lu & Zhuqing Yang, 2017. "Growing Pains: International Instability and Equity Market Returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 46(1), pages 59-87, March.
    6. Paglia, John K. & Harjoto, Maretno A., 2014. "The effects of private equity and venture capital on sales and employment growth in small and medium-sized businesses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 177-197.
    7. James Claus & Jacob Thomas, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
    8. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Sun, Xian, 2009. "Political connections and the process of going public: Evidence from China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 696-719, June.
    9. William R. Gebhardt & Charles M. C. Lee & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2001. "Toward an Implied Cost of Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 135-176, June.
    10. Darshana D. Palkar & Stephen J. Larson & Robert B. Larson, 2012. "The valuation effects of military contract awards surrounding 11th September," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 147-164, January.
    11. Manzetti, Luigi, 1994. "The politics of privatization and deregulation in Latin America," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(Supplemen), pages 43-76.
    12. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:6:p:2835-2870 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. R. Preston McAfee & John McMillan, 1986. "Bidding for Contracts: A Principal-Agent Analysis," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 17(3), pages 326-338, Autumn.
    14. Lindsay Baran & Tao-Hsien Dolly King, 2012. "Cost of Equity and S&P 500 Index Revisions," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 41(2), pages 457-481, June.
    15. Mara Faccio, 2006. "Politically Connected Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 369-386, March.
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2009_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Adelino, Manuel & Dinc, I. Serdar, 2014. "Corporate distress and lobbying: Evidence from the Stimulus Act," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 256-272.
    18. Johnson, Simon & Mitton, Todd, 2003. "Cronyism and capital controls: evidence from Malaysia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-382, February.
    19. Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1994. "Politicians and Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(4), pages 995-1025.
    20. Boubakri, Narjess & Cosset, Jean-Claude & Guedhami, Omrane, 2009. "From state to private ownership: Issues from strategic industries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 367-379, February.
    21. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    22. Li, Lei, 2013. "TARP funds distribution and bank loan supply," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4777-4792.
    23. Mara Faccio, 2010. "Differences between Politically Connected and Nonconnected Firms: A Cross‐Country Analysis," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 905-928, September.
    24. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    25. Boubakri, Narjess & Guedhami, Omrane & Mishra, Dev & Saffar, Walid, 2012. "Political connections and the cost of equity capital," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 541-559.
    26. Rogerson, William P, 1989. "Profit Regulation of Defense Contractors and Prizes for Innovation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1284-1305, December.
    27. Jean-Jacques Laffont & Jean Tirole, 1993. "A Theory of Incentives in Procurement and Regulation," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262121743, December.
    28. Tahoun, Ahmed, 2014. "The role of stock ownership by US members of Congress on the market for political favors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 86-110.
    29. Dhaliwal, Dan & Judd, J. Scott & Serfling, Matthew & Shaikh, Sarah, 2016. "Customer concentration risk and the cost of equity capital," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 23-48.
    30. Raymond Fisman, 2001. "Estimating the Value of Political Connections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1095-1102, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vendrell-Herrero, Ferran & Darko, Christian & Vaillant, Yancy, 2022. "Firm productivity and government contracts: The moderating role of corruption," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Glegg, Charmaine & Harris, Oneil & Ngo, Thanh & Susnjara, Jurica, 2021. "Having the government as a client: Does this reduce earnings management of the firm?," Journal of Government and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C).
    3. Nnadi, Modestus I. & Sorwar, Ghulam & Eskandari, Rasol & Chizema, Amon, 2021. "Political connections and seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Shaddy Douidar & Christos Pantzalis & Jung Chul Park, 2023. "Political geography and the value relevance of real options," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 703-733, November.
    5. Huang, Jun & Han, Feifei & Li, Yun, 2023. "Government as major customer: The effects of government procurement on corporate environmental, social, and governance performance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Brogaard, Jonathan & Gerasimova, Nataliya & Rohrer, Maximilian, 2024. "The effect of female leadership on contracting from Capitol Hill to Main Street," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    7. Duong Phuong Thao Pham & Thi Cam Ha Huynh, 2020. "The Impact of Trade Credit Investment on Manufacturing Firms' Profitability: Evidence from Vietnam," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 68(4), pages 775-796.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thanh Ngo & Jurica Susnjara, 2020. "Government contracts and US bond yield spreads: A study on costs and benefits of materialized political connections," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7-8), pages 1059-1085, July.
    2. Park, SeHyun, 2023. "Profitability of politically corrupt firms: Evidence from Romania," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Jiang, Haiyan & Hu, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Honghui & Zhou, Donghua, 2018. "Benefits of Downward Earnings Management and Political Connection: Evidence from Government Subsidy and Market Pricing," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 255-273.
    4. Emmanuelle Nys & Amine Tarazi & Irwan Trinugroho, 2013. "Political Connections, Bank Deposits, and Formal Deposit Insurance: Evidence from an Emerging Economy," Working Papers hal-00916513, HAL.
    5. Shen, Chung-Hua & Bui, Dien Giau & Lin, Chih-Yung, 2017. "Do political factors affect stock returns during presidential elections?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 180-198.
    6. Habib, Ahsan & Muhammadi, Abdul Haris & Jiang, Haiyan, 2017. "Political connections, related party transactions, and auditor choice: Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19.
    7. Banerjee, Rajabrata & Gupta, Kartick & Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar, 2022. "Does corrupt practice increase the implied cost of equity?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Elvira Sojli & Wing Wah Tham, 2017. "Foreign political connections," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 48(2), pages 244-266, February.
    9. Glegg, Charmaine & Harris, Oneil & Ngo, Thanh & Susnjara, Jurica, 2021. "Having the government as a client: Does this reduce earnings management of the firm?," Journal of Government and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C).
    10. Michelson, Noam, 2023. "The revolving door of former civil servants and firm value: A comprehensive approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Gropper, Daniel M. & Jahera, John S. & Park, Jung Chul, 2015. "Political power, economic freedom and Congress: Effects on bank performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 76-92.
    12. Omrane Guedhami & Jeffrey A. Pittman & Walid Saffar, 2014. "Auditor Choice in Politically Connected Firms," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 107-162, March.
    13. Joni, Joni & Ahmed, Kamran & Hamilton, Jane, 2020. "Politically connected boards, family and business group affiliations, and cost of capital: Evidence from Indonesia," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(3).
    14. Shi, Haina & Xu, Haoping & Zhang, Xin, 2018. "Do politically connected independent directors create or destroy value?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 82-96.
    15. Adrian, Christofer & Garg, Mukesh & Viet Pham, Anh & Phang, Soon-Yeow & Truong, Cameron, 2022. "Policy and oversight of corporate political activities and the cost of equity capital," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2).
    16. Cull, Robert & Li, Wei & Sun, Bo & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2015. "Government connections and financial constraints: Evidence from a large representative sample of Chinese firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 271-294.
    17. Joel F. Houston & Liangliang Jiang & Chen Lin & Yue Ma, 2014. "Political Connections and the Cost of Bank Loans," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 193-243, March.
    18. Jackowicz, Krzysztof & Kozłowski, Łukasz & Podgórski, Błażej & Winkler-Drews, Tadeusz, 2020. "Do political connections shield from negative shocks? Evidence from rating changes in advanced emerging economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    19. Yuping Deng & Yanrui Wu & Helian Xu, 2020. "Political Connections and Firm Pollution Behaviour: An Empirical Study," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 75(4), pages 867-898, April.
    20. Alnahedh, Saad & Alhashel, Bader, 2024. "Firm executive political leanings, Washington, and stock market returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 476-491.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government contractors; Cost of equity; Firm value; Operating performance; Sales growth; Tobin's Q;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:106:y:2019:i:c:p:305-322. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.