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Forecasting passenger load for a fixed planning horizon

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  • Saab, Samer S.
  • Zouein, Pierrette P.

Abstract

This paper presents a forecasting system for predicting the number of boarding passengers on each of the next N departure dates of a particular flight leg using as input the booking levels made for the next N departure dates of that flight leg. A forecasting system that gives good estimates of future boardings of a particular flight leg is an important and essential tool for route management in the airline industry. The proposed forecasting system consists of a Kalman filter, which optimally integrates a large class of reservation measurements from a variety of sources and at arbitrary times, which is the case of the data, considered here. The accuracy of the predictions for a case study proved to be promising.

Suggested Citation

  • Saab, Samer S. & Zouein, Pierrette P., 2001. "Forecasting passenger load for a fixed planning horizon," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(6), pages 361-372.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:7:y:2001:i:6:p:361-372
    DOI: 10.1016/S0969-6997(01)00030-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hopfe, David H. & Lee, Kiljae & Yu, Chunyan, 2024. "Short-term forecasting airport passenger flow during periods of volatility: Comparative investigation of time series vs. neural network models," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. Carson, Richard T. & Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Parker, Roger, 2011. "Forecasting (aggregate) demand for US commercial air travel," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 923-941.
    3. Banerjee, Nilabhra & Morton, Alec & Akartunalı, Kerem, 2020. "Passenger demand forecasting in scheduled transportation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(3), pages 797-810.

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