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Stated-preference analysis to estimate the domestic transport demand following the future entry of LCCs and the inauguration of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen in Japan

Author

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  • Inoue, Gaku
  • Ono, Masahiro
  • Uehara, Keita
  • Isono, Fumiaki

Abstract

Using a stated-preference survey, we examine changes in air transport demand by the entry of low cost carriers into domestic service, and with the beginning of operation of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen. In order to construct a choice model, we estimate the Nested-Logit model parameters by the two kinds of travel purposes in order to consider the differences in the price-sensitivity between business and non-business travelers. Simulation results for the each targeted OD vary in the shares of each transportation mode, depending upon the travel times, the aviation network, travel purpose. Non-business travelers who are more price-sensitive are less likely to choose the Linear Chuo Shinkansen with higher fares. On the route between the metropolitan area and Kinki area, total aviation demand will increase by the entry of LCCs to/from Tokyo-Haneda airport even when the Linear Chuo Shinkansen begins operating, showing that the development of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen service will not prevent strong growth in aviation demand for the trunk domestic routes.

Suggested Citation

  • Inoue, Gaku & Ono, Masahiro & Uehara, Keita & Isono, Fumiaki, 2015. "Stated-preference analysis to estimate the domestic transport demand following the future entry of LCCs and the inauguration of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen in Japan," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 199-217.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:47:y:2015:i:c:p:199-217
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2015.06.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Moshe Givoni & Frédéric Dobruszkes, 2013. "A Review of Ex-Post Evidence for Mode Substitution and Induced Demand Following the Introduction of High-Speed Rail," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/152140, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Dobruszkes, Frédéric & Dehon, Catherine & Givoni, Moshe, 2014. "Does European high-speed rail affect the current level of air services? An EU-wide analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 461-475.
    3. Dobruszkes, Frédéric, 2011. "High-speed rail and air transport competition in Western Europe: A supply-oriented perspective," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 870-879, November.
    4. De Vany, Arthur, 1974. "The Revealed Value of Time in Air Travel," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 56(1), pages 77-82, February.
    5. Moshe Givoni & Frédéric Dobruszkes, 2013. "A Review of Ex-Post Evidence for Mode Substitution and Induced Demand Following the Introduction of High-Speed Rail," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(6), pages 720-742, November.
    6. Chang, Li-Yen & Sun, Pei-Yu, 2012. "Stated-choice analysis of willingness to pay for low cost carrier services," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 15-17.
    7. Frédéric Dobruszkes, 2011. "High-speed rail and air transport competition in Western Europe: A supply-oriented perspective," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/96164, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Heng & Norman, Richard & Xia, Jianhong(Cecilia) & Hughes, Brett & Kelobonye, Keone & Nikolova, Gabi & Falkmer, Torbjorn, 2020. "Analysing travel mode and airline choice using latent class modelling: A case study in Western Australia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 187-205.
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    3. Zhou, Heng & Norman, Richard & Kelobonye, Keone & Xia, Jianhong (Cecilia) & Hughes, Brett & Nikolova, Gabi & Falkmer, Torbjorn, 2020. "Market segmentation approach to investigate existing and potential aviation markets," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 120-135.

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