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GDP management to meet or beat growth targets

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  • Lyu, Changjiang
  • Wang, Kemin
  • Zhang, Frank
  • Zhang, Xin

Abstract

We apply the discontinuity methodology from the accounting literature to a political economy setting of GDP reporting and examine whether Chinese local governments manage regional GDP numbers. We find strong evidence of discontinuities around zero in the distribution of actual minus target GDP growth rates. The frequencies of just meeting or beating GDP growth targets are about five (four) times the frequencies of just missing targets at the prefecture (province) level. The results are stronger for governors with longer tenures and those without political connections to higher-level officials as well as for local governments with more resources under their control.

Suggested Citation

  • Lyu, Changjiang & Wang, Kemin & Zhang, Frank & Zhang, Xin, 2018. "GDP management to meet or beat growth targets," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 318-338.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:66:y:2018:i:1:p:318-338
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2018.07.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP growth; Earnings management; Political economy; Discontinuity; Forecast error;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • M48 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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