Counterfactual reconciliation: Incorporating aggregation constraints for more accurate causal effect estimates
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.08.011
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Guido W. Imbens, 2020.
"Potential Outcome and Directed Acyclic Graph Approaches to Causality: Relevance for Empirical Practice in Economics,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1129-1179, December.
- Guido Imbens, 2019. "Potential Outcome and Directed Acyclic Graph Approaches to Causality: Relevance for Empirical Practice in Economics," NBER Working Papers 26104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Gechert & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Dominika Kolcunova, 2022.
"Measuring Capital-Labor Substitution: The Importance of Method Choices and Publication Bias,"
Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 55-82, July.
- Havranek, Tomas & Gechert, Sebastian & Irsova, Zuzana & Kolcunova, Dominika, 2021. "Measuring Capital-Labor Substitution: The Importance of Method Choices and Publication Bias," CEPR Discussion Papers 15687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Cl'ement de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultf{oe}uille, 2020.
"Difference-in-Differences Estimators of Intertemporal Treatment Effects,"
Papers
2007.04267, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
- Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, 2022. "Difference-in-Differences Estimators of Intertemporal Treatment Effects," NBER Working Papers 29873, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier d'Haultfoeuille, 2022. "Difference-in-Differences Estimators of Intertemporal Treatment Effects," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03873903, HAL.
- Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier d'Haultfoeuille, 2022. "Difference-in-Differences Estimators of Intertemporal Treatment Effects," Working Papers hal-03873903, HAL.
- Jeon, Jooyoung & Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2019. "Probabilistic forecast reconciliation with applications to wind power and electric load," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 364-379.
- Nikolay Doudchenko & Guido W. Imbens, 2016. "Balancing, Regression, Difference-In-Differences and Synthetic Control Methods: A Synthesis," NBER Working Papers 22791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Susan Athey & Mohsen Bayati & Nikolay Doudchenko & Guido Imbens & Khashayar Khosravi, 2021.
"Matrix Completion Methods for Causal Panel Data Models,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1716-1730, October.
- Susan Athey & Mohsen Bayati & Nikolay Doudchenko & Guido Imbens & Khashayar Khosravi, 2017. "Matrix Completion Methods for Causal Panel Data Models," Papers 1710.10251, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
- Susan Athey & Mohsen Bayati & Nikolay Doudchenko & Guido Imbens & Khashayar Khosravi, 2018. "Matrix Completion Methods for Causal Panel Data Models," NBER Working Papers 25132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2019.
"Democracy Does Cause Growth,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(1), pages 47-100.
- Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2014. "Democracy Does Cause Growth," NBER Working Papers 20004, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2016. "Democracy Does Cause Growth," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-316, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Xu, Yiqing, 2017. "Generalized Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Interactive Fixed Effects Models," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 57-76, January.
- Shanika L. Wickramasuriya & George Athanasopoulos & Rob J. Hyndman, 2019.
"Optimal Forecast Reconciliation for Hierarchical and Grouped Time Series Through Trace Minimization,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(526), pages 804-819, April.
- Shanika L. Wickramasuriya & George Athanasopoulos & Rob J. Hyndman, 2017. "Optimal forecast reconciliation for hierarchical and grouped time series through trace minimization," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 22/17, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Laurent Gobillon & Thierry Magnac, 2016.
"Regional Policy Evaluation: Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 535-551, July.
- Gobillon, Laurent & Magnac, Thierry, 2013. "Regional Policy Evaluation:Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls," IDEI Working Papers 786, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Laurent Gobillon & Thierry Magnac, 2014. "Regional Policy Evaluation: Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Control," CESifo Working Paper Series 5077, CESifo.
- Gobillon, Laurent & Magnac, Thierry, 2013. "Regional Policy Evaluation:Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls," TSE Working Papers 13-419, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
- Laurent Gobillon & Thierry Magnac, 2016. "Regional Policy Evaluation: Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-01509743, HAL.
- Gobillon, Laurent & Magnac, Thierry, 2013. "Regional Policy Evaluation: Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls," IZA Discussion Papers 7493, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Laurent Gobillon & Thierry Magnac, 2013. "Regional Policy Evaluation: Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls," Working Papers halshs-00849071, HAL.
- Laurent Gobillon & Thierry Magnac, 2016. "Regional Policy Evaluation: Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls," Post-Print halshs-01509743, HAL.
- Laurent Gobillon & Thierry Magnac, 2013. "Regional Policy Evaluation: Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls," PSE Working Papers halshs-00849071, HAL.
- Magnac, Thierry & Gobillon, Laurent, 2014. "Regional Policy Evaluation: Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls," CEPR Discussion Papers 10253, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Athanasopoulos, George & Gamakumara, Puwasala & Hyndman, Rob J., 2021.
"Forecast reconciliation: A geometric view with new insights on bias correction,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 343-359.
- Anastasios Panagiotelis & Puwasala Gamakumara & George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman, 2019. "Forecast Reconciliation: A geometric View with New Insights on Bias Correction," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 18/19, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Anastasios Panagiotelis & Puwasala Gamakumara & George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman, 2020. "Forecast Reconciliation: A geometric View with New Insights on Bias Correction," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 23/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D’Haultfœuille, 2023.
"Two-way fixed effects and differences-in-differences with heterogeneous treatment effects: a survey,"
The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 1-30.
- Cl'ement de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultf{oe}uille, 2021. "Two-Way Fixed Effects and Differences-in-Differences with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects: A Survey," Papers 2112.04565, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
- Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, 2022. "Two-Way Fixed Effects and Differences-in-Differences with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 29691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D’haultfœuille, 2022. "Two-Way Fixed Effects and Differences-in-Differences with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects: A Survey," Post-Print hal-03873885, HAL.
- Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, 2022. "Two-Way Fixed Effects and Differences-in-Differences with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 29734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Xavier d'Haultfoeuille, 2022. "Two-way fixed effects and difference in differences with heterogeneous treatment effects: A survey," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2022 01, Stata Users Group.
- Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D’haultfœuille, 2022. "Two-Way Fixed Effects and Differences-in-Differences with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects: A Survey," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03873885, HAL.
- Athanasopoulos, George & Ahmed, Roman A. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2009.
"Hierarchical forecasts for Australian domestic tourism,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 146-166.
- George Athanasopoulos & Roman A. Ahmed & Rob J. Hyndman, 2007. "Hierarchical forecasts for Australian domestic tourism," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised Nov 2007.
- Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2017.
"The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 3-32, Spring.
- Susan Athey & Guido Imbens, 2016. "The State of Applied Econometrics - Causality and Policy Evaluation," Papers 1607.00699, arXiv.org.
- Hollyman, Ross & Petropoulos, Fotios & Tipping, Michael E., 2021. "Understanding forecast reconciliation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(1), pages 149-160.
- Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004.
"How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
- Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2002. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," NBER Working Papers 8841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," Working Papers 1990-24, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Ahmed, Roman A. & Athanasopoulos, George & Shang, Han Lin, 2011.
"Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(9), pages 2579-2589, September.
- Rob J. Hyndman & Roman A. Ahmed & George Athanasopoulos, 2007. "Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Souhaib Ben Taieb & James W. Taylor & Rob J. Hyndman, 2021. "Hierarchical Probabilistic Forecasting of Electricity Demand With Smart Meter Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(533), pages 27-43, March.
- Sebastian Gechert & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Dominika Kolcunova, 2022.
"Measuring Capital-Labor Substitution: The Importance of Method Choices and Publication Bias,"
Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 55-82, July.
- Sebastian Gechert & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Dominika Kolcunova, 2021. "Online Appendix to "Measuring Capital-Labor Substitution: The Importance of Method Choices and Publication Bias"," Online Appendices 20-200, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Imbens,Guido W. & Rubin,Donald B., 2015. "Causal Inference for Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521885881, November.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Cengiz, Doruk & Tekgüç, Hasan, 2022. "Counterfactual Reconciliation: Incorporating Aggregation Constraints For More Accurate Causal Effect Estimates," MPRA Paper 114478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Guido Imbens, 2023. "Causal Models for Longitudinal and Panel Data: A Survey," Papers 2311.15458, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
- Sviták, Jan & Tichem, Jan & Haasbeek, Stefan, 2021. "Price effects of search advertising restrictions," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
- Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2024.
"Forecast reconciliation: A review,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 430-456.
- George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman & Nikolaos Kourentzes & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Forecast Reconciliation: A Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Di Fonzo, Tommaso & Girolimetto, Daniele, 2024. "Forecast combination-based forecast reconciliation: Insights and extensions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 490-514.
- Samuel Verevis & Murat Üngör, 2021. "What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 20-50, February.
- Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020.
"Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls,"
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.
- Ferman, Bruno & Pinto, Cristine Campos de Xavier & Possebom, Vítor Augusto, 2016. "Cherry picking with synthetic controls," Textos para discussão 420, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
- Ferman, Bruno & Pinto, Cristine & Possebom, Vitor, 2017. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," MPRA Paper 78213, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Irene Botosaru & Bruno Ferman, 2019.
"On the role of covariates in the synthetic control method,"
The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 22(2), pages 117-130.
- Botosaru, Irene & Ferman, Bruno, 2017. "On the Role of Covariates in the Synthetic Control Method," MPRA Paper 80796, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Papers 2207.14481, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
- Victor Chernozhukov & Kaspar Wüthrich & Yinchu Zhu, 2021.
"An Exact and Robust Conformal Inference Method for Counterfactual and Synthetic Controls,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1849-1864, October.
- Victor Chernozhukov & Kaspar Wüthrich & Yu Zhu, 2017. "An exact and robust conformal inference method for counterfactual and synthetic controls," CeMMAP working papers CWP62/17, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Victor Chernozhukov & Kaspar Wuthrich & Yinchu Zhu, 2017. "An Exact and Robust Conformal Inference Method for Counterfactual and Synthetic Controls," Papers 1712.09089, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
- Victor Chernozhukov & Kaspar Wüthrich & Yu Zhu, 2017. "An exact and robust conformal inference method for counterfactual and synthetic controls," CeMMAP working papers 62/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Chernozhukov, Victor & Wüthrich, Kaspar & Zhu, Yinchu, 2021. "An Exact and Robust Conformal Inference Method for Counterfactual and Synthetic Controls," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt90m9d66s, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Giulio Grossi & Marco Mariani & Alessandra Mattei & Patrizia Lattarulo & Ozge Oner, 2020. "Direct and spillover effects of a new tramway line on the commercial vitality of peripheral streets. A synthetic-control approach," Papers 2004.05027, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
- David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
- Susan Athey & Mohsen Bayati & Nikolay Doudchenko & Guido Imbens & Khashayar Khosravi, 2021.
"Matrix Completion Methods for Causal Panel Data Models,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1716-1730, October.
- Susan Athey & Mohsen Bayati & Nikolay Doudchenko & Guido Imbens & Khashayar Khosravi, 2017. "Matrix Completion Methods for Causal Panel Data Models," Papers 1710.10251, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
- Susan Athey & Mohsen Bayati & Nikolay Doudchenko & Guido Imbens & Khashayar Khosravi, 2018. "Matrix Completion Methods for Causal Panel Data Models," NBER Working Papers 25132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zhang, Bohan & Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Kang, Yanfei, 2024. "Discrete forecast reconciliation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 318(1), pages 143-153.
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022.
"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- Di Fonzo, Tommaso & Girolimetto, Daniele, 2023. "Cross-temporal forecast reconciliation: Optimal combination method and heuristic alternatives," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 39-57.
- Girolimetto, Daniele & Athanasopoulos, George & Di Fonzo, Tommaso & Hyndman, Rob J., 2024. "Cross-temporal probabilistic forecast reconciliation: Methodological and practical issues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1134-1151.
- Møller, Jan Kloppenborg & Nystrup, Peter & Madsen, Henrik, 2024. "Likelihood-based inference in temporal hierarchies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 515-531.
- Davide Viviano & Jelena Bradic, 2019. "Synthetic learner: model-free inference on treatments over time," Papers 1904.01490, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
- Li, Han & Hyndman, Rob J., 2021. "Assessing mortality inequality in the U.S.: What can be said about the future?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 152-162.
More about this item
Keywords
Forecast reconciliation; Non-linear constraints; Causal machine learning methods; Counterfactual estimation; Difference-in-differences;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:40:y:2024:i:2:p:564-580. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.