IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v38y2022i3p910-919.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cyberattack-resilient load forecasting with adaptive robust regression

Author

Listed:
  • Jiao, Jieying
  • Tang, Zefan
  • Zhang, Peng
  • Yue, Meng
  • Yan, Jun

Abstract

Cyberattacks in power systems that alter the input data of a load forecasting model have serious, potentially devastating consequences. Existing cyberattack-resilient work focuses mainly on enhancing attack detection. Although some outliers can be easily identified, more carefully designed attacks can escape detection and impact load forecasting. Here, a cyberattack-resilient load forecasting approach based on an adaptive robust regression method is proposed, where the observations are trimmed based on their residuals and the proportion of the trim is adaptively determined by an estimation of the contaminated data proportion. An extensive comparison study shows that the proposed method outperforms the standard robust regression in various settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiao, Jieying & Tang, Zefan & Zhang, Peng & Yue, Meng & Yan, Jun, 2022. "Cyberattack-resilient load forecasting with adaptive robust regression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 910-919.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:38:y:2022:i:3:p:910-919
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.06.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207021001096
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.06.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xie, Jingrui & Hong, Tao, 2016. "GEFCom2014 probabilistic electric load forecasting: An integrated solution with forecast combination and residual simulation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1012-1016.
    2. Hong, Tao & Pinson, Pierre & Fan, Shu, 2014. "Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 357-363.
    3. Taylor, James W. & Buizza, Roberto, 2003. "Using weather ensemble predictions in electricity demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 57-70.
    4. Tao Hong, 2014. "Energy Forecasting: Past, Present, and Future," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 32, pages 43-48, Winter.
    5. Hong, Tao & Fan, Shu, 2016. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 914-938.
    6. Luo, Jian & Hong, Tao & Fang, Shu-Cherng, 2018. "Benchmarking robustness of load forecasting models under data integrity attacks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 89-104.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. VandenHeuvel, Daniel & Wu, Jinran & Wang, You-Gan, 2023. "Robust regression for electricity demand forecasting against cyberattacks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1573-1592.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luo, Jian & Hong, Tao & Fang, Shu-Cherng, 2018. "Benchmarking robustness of load forecasting models under data integrity attacks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 89-104.
    2. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Luo, Jian & Hong, Tao & Gao, Zheming & Fang, Shu-Cherng, 2023. "A robust support vector regression model for electric load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 1005-1020.
    4. Sobhani, Masoud & Hong, Tao & Martin, Claude, 2020. "Temperature anomaly detection for electric load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 324-333.
    5. Xu, Lei & Wang, Shengwei & Tang, Rui, 2019. "Probabilistic load forecasting for buildings considering weather forecasting uncertainty and uncertain peak load," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 180-195.
    6. Hong, Tao & Pinson, Pierre & Fan, Shu & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Troccoli, Alberto & Hyndman, Rob J., 2016. "Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 896-913.
    7. Moreno-Carbonell, Santiago & Sánchez-Úbeda, Eugenio F. & Muñoz, Antonio, 2020. "Rethinking weather station selection for electric load forecasting using genetic algorithms," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 695-712.
    8. VandenHeuvel, Daniel & Wu, Jinran & Wang, You-Gan, 2023. "Robust regression for electricity demand forecasting against cyberattacks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1573-1592.
    9. Jingrui Xie & Tao Hong, 2017. "Wind Speed for Load Forecasting Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-12, May.
    10. Wang, Pu & Liu, Bidong & Hong, Tao, 2016. "Electric load forecasting with recency effect: A big data approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 585-597.
    11. Sharifzadeh, Mahdi & Sikinioti-Lock, Alexandra & Shah, Nilay, 2019. "Machine-learning methods for integrated renewable power generation: A comparative study of artificial neural networks, support vector regression, and Gaussian Process Regression," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 513-538.
    12. Jian Luo & Yukai Zheng & Tao Hong & An Luo & Xueqi Yang, 2024. "Fuzzy support vector regressions for short-term load forecasting," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 363-385, September.
    13. Jonathan Roth & Jayashree Chadalawada & Rishee K. Jain & Clayton Miller, 2021. "Uncertainty Matters: Bayesian Probabilistic Forecasting for Residential Smart Meter Prediction, Segmentation, and Behavioral Measurement and Verification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, March.
    14. van der Meer, D.W. & Shepero, M. & Svensson, A. & Widén, J. & Munkhammar, J., 2018. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity consumption, photovoltaic power generation and net demand of an individual building using Gaussian Processes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 195-207.
    15. González Ordiano, Jorge Ángel & Gröll, Lutz & Mikut, Ralf & Hagenmeyer, Veit, 2020. "Probabilistic energy forecasting using the nearest neighbors quantile filter and quantile regression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 310-323.
    16. Elamin, Niematallah & Fukushige, Mototsugu, 2018. "Modeling and forecasting hourly electricity demand by SARIMAX with interactions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 257-268.
    17. Xu, Xiuqin & Chen, Ying & Goude, Yannig & Yao, Qiwei, 2021. "Day-ahead probabilistic forecasting for French half-hourly electricity loads and quantiles for curve-to-curve regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    18. Hong, Tao & Xie, Jingrui & Black, Jonathan, 2019. "Global energy forecasting competition 2017: Hierarchical probabilistic load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1389-1399.
    19. Kuangyu Wen & Wenbin Wu & Ximing Wu, 2023. "Electricity demand forecasting and risk management using Gaussian process model with error propagation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 957-969, July.
    20. Trotter, Ian Michael & Féres, José Gustavo & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland & de Hollanda, Lavínia Rocha, 2015. "Simulating Brazilian Electricity Demand Under Climate Change Scenarios," Working Papers in Applied Economics 208689, Universidade Federal de Vicosa, Departamento de Economia Rural.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:38:y:2022:i:3:p:910-919. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.