IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v37y2021i4p1463-1479.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Semiparametric time series models driven by latent factor

Author

Listed:
  • Maia, Gisele de Oliveira
  • Barreto-Souza, Wagner
  • Bastos, Fernando de Souza
  • Ombao, Hernando

Abstract

We introduce a class of semiparametric time series models (SemiParTS) driven by a latent factor process. The proposed SemiParTS class is flexible because, given the latent process, only the conditional mean and variance of the time series are specified. These are the primary features of SemiParTS: (i) no parametric form is assumed for the conditional distribution of the time series given the latent process; (ii) it is suitable for a wide range of data: non-negative, count, bounded, binary, and real-valued time series; (iii) it does not constrain the dispersion parameter to be known. The quasi-likelihood inference is employed in order to estimate the parameters in the mean function. Here, we derive explicit expressions for the marginal moments and for the autocorrelation function of the time series process so that a method of moments can be employed to estimate the dispersion parameter and also the parameters related to the latent process. Simulated results that aim to check the proposed estimation procedure are presented. Forecasting procedures are proposed and evaluated in simulated and real data. Analyses of the number of admissions in a hospital due to asthma and a total insolation time series illustrate the potential for practical situations that involve the proposed models.

Suggested Citation

  • Maia, Gisele de Oliveira & Barreto-Souza, Wagner & Bastos, Fernando de Souza & Ombao, Hernando, 2021. "Semiparametric time series models driven by latent factor," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1463-1479.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:37:y:2021:i:4:p:1463-1479
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.12.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920702030193X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.12.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benjamin M.A. & Rigby R.A. & Stasinopoulos D.M., 2003. "Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 214-223, January.
    2. Richard A. Davis, 2003. "Observation-driven models for Poisson counts," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 90(4), pages 777-790, December.
    3. Vasiliki Christou & Konstantinos Fokianos, 2014. "Quasi-Likelihood Inference For Negative Binomial Time Series Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 55-78, January.
    4. Alzahrani, Naif & Neal, Peter & Spencer, Simon E.F. & McKinley, Trevelyan J. & Touloupou, Panayiota, 2018. "Model selection for time series of count data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 33-44.
    5. Andréa Rocha & Francisco Cribari-Neto, 2009. "Beta autoregressive moving average models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 18(3), pages 529-545, November.
    6. Berkes, István & Horváth, Lajos, 2003. "The rate of consistency of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 133-143, January.
    7. Richard A. Davis & Rongning Wu, 2009. "A negative binomial model for time series of counts," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 96(3), pages 735-749.
    8. Jung, Robert C. & Tremayne, A.R., 2006. "Coherent forecasting in integer time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 223-238.
    9. Agosto, Arianna & Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Kristensen, Dennis & Rahbek, Anders, 2016. "Modeling corporate defaults: Poisson autoregressions with exogenous covariates (PARX)," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 640-663.
    10. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Xu, Fang, 2014. "Testing for unit roots in bounded time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 259-272.
    11. Muniain, Peru & Ziel, Florian, 2020. "Probabilistic forecasting in day-ahead electricity markets: Simulating peak and off-peak prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1193-1210.
    12. Zhang, Yaojie & Ma, Feng & Liao, Yin, 2020. "Forecasting global equity market volatilities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1454-1475.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Escribano, Alvaro & Peña, Daniel & Ruiz, Esther, 2021. "30 years of cointegration and dynamic factor models forecasting and its future with big data: Editorial," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1333-1337.
    2. Wagner Barreto-Souza & Sokol Ndreca & Rodrigo B. Silva & Roger W. C. Silva, 2023. "Non-linear INAR(1) processes under an alternative geometric thinning operator," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 32(2), pages 695-725, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wagner Barreto‐Souza & Hernando Ombao, 2022. "The negative binomial process: A tractable model with composite likelihood‐based inference," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 49(2), pages 568-592, June.
    2. Zheng, Tingguo & Xiao, Han & Chen, Rong, 2015. "Generalized ARMA models with martingale difference errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(2), pages 492-506.
    3. Zheng, Tingguo & Chen, Rong, 2017. "Dirichlet ARMA models for compositional time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 31-46.
    4. Tingguo Zheng & Han Xiao & Rong Chen, 2022. "Generalized autoregressive moving average models with GARCH errors," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 125-146, January.
    5. Tingguo Zheng & Han Xiao & Rong Chen, 2021. "Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average Models with GARCH Errors," Papers 2105.05532, arXiv.org.
    6. Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos, 2020. "On an integer-valued stochastic intensity model for time series of counts," MPRA Paper 105406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos & Touche, Nassim, 2019. "Integer-valued stochastic volatility," MPRA Paper 91962, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Feb 2019.
    8. Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Bendjeddou, Sara, 2016. "Negative binomial quasi-likelihood inference for general integer-valued time series models," MPRA Paper 76574, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Feb 2017.
    9. Tianqing Liu & Xiaohui Yuan, 2013. "Random rounded integer-valued autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic process," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 645-683, August.
    10. Gorgi, P. & Koopman, S.J., 2023. "Beta observation-driven models with exogenous regressors: A joint analysis of realized correlation and leverage effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    11. Vasiliki Christou & Konstantinos Fokianos, 2014. "Quasi-Likelihood Inference For Negative Binomial Time Series Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 55-78, January.
    12. Youngmi Lee & Sangyeol Lee, 2019. "CUSUM test for general nonlinear integer-valued GARCH models: comparison study," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 71(5), pages 1033-1057, October.
    13. Xinyang Wang & Dehui Wang & Kai Yang, 2021. "Integer-valued time series model order shrinkage and selection via penalized quasi-likelihood approach," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 84(5), pages 713-750, July.
    14. Jung, Robert C. & Kukuk, Martin & Liesenfeld, Roman, 2006. "Time series of count data: modeling, estimation and diagnostics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2350-2364, December.
    15. Fokianos, Konstantinos & Rahbek, Anders & Tjøstheim, Dag, 2009. "Poisson Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(488), pages 1430-1439.
    16. Paolo Gorgi, 2020. "Beta–negative binomial auto‐regressions for modelling integer‐valued time series with extreme observations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 82(5), pages 1325-1347, December.
    17. Truquet, Lionel, 2023. "Strong mixing properties of discrete-valued time series with exogenous covariates," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 294-317.
    18. Pedro H. C. Sant’Anna, 2017. "Testing for Uncorrelated Residuals in Dynamic Count Models With an Application to Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 349-358, July.
    19. Cui, Yunwei & Zheng, Qi, 2017. "Conditional maximum likelihood estimation for a class of observation-driven time series models for count data," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 193-201.
    20. Víctor Enciso‐Mora & Peter Neal & T. Subba Rao, 2009. "Efficient order selection algorithms for integer‐valued ARMA processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 1-18, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:37:y:2021:i:4:p:1463-1479. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.