IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v31y2015i2p575-581.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

News volume information: Beyond earnings forecasting in a global stock selection model

Author

Listed:
  • Gillam, Robert A.
  • Guerard, John B.
  • Cahan, Rochester

Abstract

Earnings forecasting models produce highly statistically significant asset selection, active equity, and total active returns. We propose a measure of abnormal news volume that controls for the size of the firm and the analyst attention that it receives, and demonstrate that news volume information can enhance returns relative to using only an earnings forecasting model. Furthermore, we show that this measure enhances the predictive power of a global stock selection model using information coefficients, Boolean signals, and efficient frontiers.

Suggested Citation

  • Gillam, Robert A. & Guerard, John B. & Cahan, Rochester, 2015. "News volume information: Beyond earnings forecasting in a global stock selection model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 575-581.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:2:p:575-581
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.12.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207014001873
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.12.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    2. Henry Allen Latane, 1959. "Criteria for Choice Among Risky Ventures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 144-144.
    3. M. Bloch & J. Guerard & H. Markowitz & P. Todd & G. Xu, 2020. "A comparison of some aspects of the U.S. and Japanese equity markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John B Guerard & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF APPLIED INVESTMENT RESEARCH, chapter 3, pages 17-40, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Guerard, John B. & Markowitz, Harry & Xu, GanLin, 2015. "Earnings forecasting in a global stock selection model and efficient portfolio construction and management," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 550-560.
    5. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Mustafa Gultekin, 1981. "Expectations and Share Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(9), pages 975-987, September.
    6. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Dissecting Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1653-1678, August.
    7. Lily Fang & Joel Peress, 2009. "Media Coverage and the Cross‐section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2023-2052, October.
    8. Groß-Klußmann, Axel & Hautsch, Nikolaus, 2011. "When machines read the news: Using automated text analytics to quantify high frequency news-implied market reactions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 321-340, March.
    9. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. "Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-155, March.
    10. Paul C. Tetlock, 2010. "Does Public Financial News Resolve Asymmetric Information?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(9), pages 3520-3557.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Feng Zhang & Ruite Guo & Honggao Cao, 2020. "Information Coefficient as a Performance Measure of Stock Selection Models," Papers 2010.08601, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guerard, John B. & Markowitz, Harry & Xu, GanLin, 2015. "Earnings forecasting in a global stock selection model and efficient portfolio construction and management," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 550-560.
    2. John B. Guerard & Harry Markowitz & Ganlin Xu & Ziwei Wang, 2018. "Global portfolio construction with emphasis on conflicting corporate strategies to maximize stockholder wealth," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 267(1), pages 203-219, August.
    3. John B. Guerard, Jr. & Robert A. Gillam & Harry Markowitz & Ganlin Xu & Shijie Deng & Ziwei (Elaine) Wang, 2018. "Data Mining Corrections Testing in Chinese Stocks," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 48(2), pages 108-120, April.
    4. Ferdinand Graf, 2011. "Mechanically Extracted Company Signals and their Impact on Stock and Credit Markets," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-18, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    5. Xiaofei Zhao, 2017. "Does Information Intensity Matter for Stock Returns? Evidence from Form 8-K Filings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1382-1404, May.
    6. Robert F. Engle & Martin Klint Hansen & Asger Lunde, 2012. "And Now, The Rest of the News: Volatility and Firm Specific News Arrival," CREATES Research Papers 2012-56, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. repec:fau:fauart:v:65:y:2015:i:1:p:84-104 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Wei, Yu-Chen & Lu, Yang-Cheng & Chen, Jen-Nan & Hsu, Yen-Ju, 2017. "Informativeness of the market news sentiment in the Taiwan stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 158-181.
    9. Gupta, Kartick & Banerjee, Rajabrata, 2019. "Does OPEC news sentiment influence stock returns of energy firms in the United States?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 34-45.
    10. Yen-Ju Hsu & Yang-Cheng Lu & J. Jimmy Yang, 2021. "News sentiment and stock market volatility," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1093-1122, October.
    11. Ammann, Manuel & Frey, Roman & Verhofen, Michael, 2012. "Do Newspaper Articles Predict Aggregate Stock Returns?," Working Papers on Finance 1204, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    12. Liu, Jun & Wu, Kai & Zhou, Ming, 2023. "News tone, investor sentiment, and liquidity premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 167-181.
    13. Rui Fan & Oleksandr Talavera & Vu Tran, 2020. "Social media bots and stock markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(3), pages 753-777, June.
    14. John B. Guerard & Ganlin Xu & Harry Markowitz, 2021. "A further analysis of robust regression modeling and data mining corrections testing in global stocks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 303(1), pages 175-195, August.
    15. Shao, Barret Pengyuan & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Mu, Yu, 2015. "Applied mean-ETL optimization in using earnings forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 561-567.
    16. Guerard, John, 2023. "Harry Markowitz: An appreciation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1496-1501.
    17. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Abhay K. Singh, 2019. "Daily market news sentiment and stock prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(30), pages 3212-3235, June.
    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2256 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Beheshti, Bijan, 2015. "A note on the integration of the alpha alignment factor and earnings forecasting models in producing more efficient Markowitz Frontiers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 582-584.
    20. Zhong, Angel, 2018. "Idiosyncratic volatility in the Australian equity market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-125.
    21. Jan Kallsen & Johannes Muhle-Karbe, 2013. "The General Structure of Optimal Investment and Consumption with Small Transaction Costs," Papers 1303.3148, arXiv.org, revised May 2015.
    22. Solomon, David H. & Soltes, Eugene & Sosyura, Denis, 2014. "Winners in the spotlight: Media coverage of fund holdings as a driver of flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 53-72.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:2:p:575-581. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.