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The Delphi method in forecasting financial markets— An experimental study

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  • Kauko, Karlo
  • Palmroos, Peter

Abstract

Experts were used as Delphi panellists and asked to present forecasts on financial market variables in a controlled experiment. We found that the respondents with the least accurate or least conventional views were particularly likely to modify their answers. Most of these modifications were in the right direction but too small, probably because of belief-perseverance bias. This paper also presents two post-survey adjustment methods for Delphi method based forecasts. First, we present a potential method to correct for the belief perseverance bias. The results seem promising. Secondly, we test a conditional forecasting process, which unexpectedly proves unsuccessful.

Suggested Citation

  • Kauko, Karlo & Palmroos, Peter, 2014. "The Delphi method in forecasting financial markets— An experimental study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 313-327.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:30:y:2014:i:2:p:313-327
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.09.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Barrios, Maite & Guilera, Georgina & Nuño, Laura & Gómez-Benito, Juana, 2021. "Consensus in the delphi method: What makes a decision change?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    6. Marcin Kozak & Olesia Iefremova, 2014. "Implementation Of The Delphi Technique In Finance," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(4), pages 36-45, May.
    7. Kawamoto, Carlos Tadao & Wright, James Terence Coulter & Spers, Renata Giovinazzo & de Carvalho, Daniel Estima, 2019. "Can we make use of perception of questions' easiness in Delphi-like studies? Some results from an experiment with an alternative feedback," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 296-305.
    8. Leticia dos Muchangos & Akihiro Tokai & Atsuko Hanashima, 2015. "Application of the Delphi Method to the Identification of Barriers to a Waste Management Policy in Maputo City, Mozambique," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(6), pages 146-146, June.
    9. Jun Dong & Huijuan Huo, 2017. "Identification of Financing Barriers to Energy Efficiency in Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises by Integrating the Fuzzy Delphi and Fuzzy DEMATEL Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-26, August.
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