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Valuation of variable annuities with Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit under stochastic interest rate

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  • Shevchenko, Pavel V.
  • Luo, Xiaolin

Abstract

This paper develops an efficient direct integration method for pricing of the variable annuity (VA) with guarantees in the case of stochastic interest rate. In particular, we focus on pricing VA with Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB) that promises to return the entire initial investment through withdrawals and the remaining account balance at maturity. Under the optimal (dynamic) withdrawal strategy of a policyholder, GMWB pricing becomes an optimal stochastic control problem that can be solved using backward recursion Bellman equation. Optimal decision becomes a function of not only the underlying asset but also interest rate. Presently our method is applied to the Vasicek interest rate model, but it is applicable to any model when transition density of the underlying asset and interest rate is known in closed-form or can be evaluated efficiently. Using bond price as a numéraire the required expectations in the backward recursion are reduced to two-dimensional integrals calculated through a high order Gauss–Hermite quadrature applied on a two-dimensional cubic spline interpolation. The quadrature is applied after a rotational transformation to the variables corresponding to the principal axes of the bivariate transition density, which empirically was observed to be more accurate than the use of Cholesky transformation. Numerical comparison demonstrates that the new algorithm is significantly faster than the partial differential equation or Monte Carlo methods. For pricing of GMWB with dynamic withdrawal strategy, we found that for positive correlation between the underlying asset and interest rate, the GMWB price under the stochastic interest rate is significantly higher compared to the case of deterministic interest rate, while for negative correlation the difference is less but still significant. In the case of GMWB with predefined (static) withdrawal strategy, for negative correlation, the difference in prices between stochastic and deterministic interest rate cases is not material while for positive correlation the difference is still significant. The algorithm can be easily adapted to solve similar stochastic control problems with two stochastic variables possibly affected by control. Application to numerical pricing of Asian, barrier and other financial derivatives with a single risky asset under stochastic interest rate is also straightforward.

Suggested Citation

  • Shevchenko, Pavel V. & Luo, Xiaolin, 2017. "Valuation of variable annuities with Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit under stochastic interest rate," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 104-117.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:76:y:2017:i:c:p:104-117
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2017.06.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bacinello, Anna Rita & Millossovich, Pietro & Olivieri, Annamaria & Pitacco, Ermanno, 2011. "Variable annuities: A unifying valuation approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 285-297.
    2. Xiaolin Luo & Pavel Shevchenko, 2015. "Variable Annuity with GMWB: surrender or not, that is the question," Papers 1507.08738, arXiv.org.
    3. Xiaolin Luo & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2015. "Fast numerical method for pricing of variable annuities with guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit under optimal withdrawal strategy," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(03), pages 1-26.
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    11. Xiaolin Luo & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2014. "Valuation of Variable Annuities with Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal and Death Benefits via Stochastic Control Optimization," Papers 1411.5453, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2015.
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    15. Luo, Xiaolin & Shevchenko, Pavel V., 2015. "Valuation of variable annuities with guaranteed minimum withdrawal and death benefits via stochastic control optimization," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 5-15.
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    17. Xiaolin Luo & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2014. "Fast and Simple Method for Pricing Exotic Options using Gauss-Hermite Quadrature on a Cubic Spline Interpolation," Papers 1408.6938, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2014.
    18. Pavel V. Shevchenko & Xiaolin Luo, 2016. "A Unified Pricing of Variable Annuity Guarantees under the Optimal Stochastic Control Framework," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-31, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ludovic Goudenege & Andrea Molent & Antonino Zanette, 2019. "Pricing and hedging GMWB in the Heston and in the Black–Scholes with stochastic interest rate models," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 217-248, February.
    2. Jin Sun & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Man Chung Fung, 2018. "The Impact of Management Fees on the Pricing of Variable Annuity Guarantees," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Claudio Fontana & Francesco Rotondi, 2022. "Valuation of general GMWB annuities in a low interest rate environment," Papers 2208.10183, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    4. Areski Cousin & Ying Jiao & Christian y Robert & Olivier David Zerbib, 2021. "Optimal asset allocation subject to withdrawal risk and solvency constraints," Working Papers hal-03244380, HAL.
    5. Kirkby, J. Lars & Nguyen, Duy, 2021. "Equity-linked Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefits with dollar cost averaging," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 408-428.
    6. Yaowen Lu & Duy-Minh Dang, 2023. "A semi-Lagrangian $\epsilon$-monotone Fourier method for continuous withdrawal GMWBs under jump-diffusion with stochastic interest rate," Papers 2310.00606, arXiv.org.
    7. David Markantonis & G.-Fivos Sargentis & Panayiotis Dimitriadis & Theano Iliopoulou & Aimilia Siganou & Konstantina Moraiti & Maria Nikolinakou & Ilias Taygetos Meletopoulos & Nikos Mamassis & Demetri, 2023. "Stochastic Evaluation of the Investment Risk by the Scale of Water Infrastructures—Case Study: The Municipality of West Mani (Greece)," World, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-20, January.
    8. Moenig, Thorsten, 2021. "Variable annuities: Market incompleteness and policyholder behavior," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 63-78.

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