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Estimating price and income elasticities of demand for forest products: Cluster analysis used as a tool in grouping

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  • Michinaka, Tetsuya
  • Tachibana, Satoshi
  • Turner, James A.

Abstract

Well-estimated elasticities of demand are important for making long-run projections in demand for forest products. In this research, cluster analysis is used to group 180 countries contained within the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM), using cross-sectional data for per capita gross domestic product (GDP), forest coverage, and per capita consumption of forest products, for forest products including plywood, particleboard, fiberboard, newsprint, printing and writing paper, and other paper and paperboard. The application of cluster analysis prior to estimating the elasticities of demand solves the problem of data availability in estimating elasticities by grouping countries based on variables identified from economics theory and enabling the extension of elasticity estimates to countries that are similar to others in a cluster, but without data for directly estimating elasticties. Mean absolute deviation is used for data standardization, and the k-medoids approach and silhouette technique are used in cluster analysis. Statistics of clusters for every forest product show various combinations of countries with similar levels of per capita GDP, forest coverage, and consumption, such as a cluster with high per capita GDP, low forest coverage, and high consumption of the discussed forest product. The results of the cluster analysis are validated by a one-way analysis of means and multiple comparisons. Countries for panel analysis are selected based on time series data availability and quality. As implied by cluster analysis, some of the countries in the cluster can be used to represent the whole cluster. In this research, long-run static models, short-run dynamic models, and long-run dynamic models of demand are estimated using panel data analysis for countries in each cluster using data from 1992 to 2007 and 9 to 44 countries in each cluster. We found that long-run dynamic elasticities are higher than short-run dynamic estimations, and dynamic model estimations outperform static model estimations as shown in RMSE statistics.

Suggested Citation

  • Michinaka, Tetsuya & Tachibana, Satoshi & Turner, James A., 2011. "Estimating price and income elasticities of demand for forest products: Cluster analysis used as a tool in grouping," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 435-445, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:13:y:2011:i:6:p:435-445
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roos, Anders & Flinkman, Matti & Jappinen, Armas & Lonner, Goran & Warensjo, Mats, 2001. "Production strategies in the Swedish softwood sawmilling industry," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 189-197, November.
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    2. Schier, Franziska & Morland, Christian & Dieter, Matthias & Weimar, Holger, 2021. "Estimating supply and demand elasticities of dissolving pulp, lignocellulose-based chemical derivatives and textile fibres in an emerging forest-based bioeconomy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Morland, Christian & Schier, Franziska & Janzen, Niels & Weimar, Holger, 2018. "Supply and demand functions for global wood markets: Specification and plausibility testing of econometric models within the global forest sector," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 92-105.
    4. Buongiorno, Joseph, 2019. "Country-specific demand elasticities for forest products: Estimation method and consequences for long term projections," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Borzykowski, Nicolas, 2017. "The Swiss market for construction wood : estimating elasticities with time series simultaneous equations," 91st Annual Conference, April 24-26, 2017, Royal Dublin Society, Dublin, Ireland 258659, Agricultural Economics Society.
    6. Hurmekoski, Elias & Hetemäki, Lauri & Linden, Mika, 2015. "Factors affecting sawnwood consumption in Europe," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 236-248.
    7. Kanieski da Silva, Bruno & Boys, Kathryn A. & Cubbage, Frederick W., 2016. "Forest Stewardship Standards: Voluntary Governance As A Trade Facilitation Strategy?," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236191, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Sorda, Giovanni & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Cost-Effectiveness of Lignocellulose Biorefineries and their Impact on the Deciduous Wood Markets in Germany," FCN Working Papers 8/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    9. Bo Xiong, 2017. "The implications of US punitive tariffs on Chinese tires for rubber exports from South-East Asia," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 575-586, October.
    10. Ehara, Makoto & Saito, Hideki & Michinaka, Tetsuya & Hirata, Yasumasa & Leng, Chivin & Matsumoto, Mitsuo & Riano, Carlos, 2021. "Allocating the REDD+ national baseline to local projects: A case study of Cambodia," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

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