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Do investors care about credit ratings? An analysis through the cycle

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  • Iannotta, Giuliano
  • Nocera, Giacomo
  • Resti, Andrea

Abstract

We investigate how the credit cycle affects the link between bond spreads and credit ratings. Using a simple model of the credit assessment process, we show that when the debt market is more opaque, the information content of ratings deteriorates, creating an incentive for investors to increase the amount spent on private information. We test this hypothesis empirically. Results show that when market opaqueness (proxied by the spread between Aaa- and Baa-rated bonds) increases, the explanatory power of ratings and other control variables deteriorates as investors increasingly price in non-public information.

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  • Iannotta, Giuliano & Nocera, Giacomo & Resti, Andrea, 2013. "Do investors care about credit ratings? An analysis through the cycle," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 545-555.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:9:y:2013:i:4:p:545-555
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2012.11.006
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    2. Quentin Bro de Comères, 2022. "Predicting European Banks Distress Events: Do Financial Information Producers Matter?," Working Papers hal-03752678, HAL.
    3. Ghosh, Saibal, 2018. "Bad luck, Bad policy or Bad banking? Understanding the financial management behavior of MENA banks," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 47, pages 110-128.
    4. Themistokles Lazarides & Evaggelos Drimpetas, 2016. "Defining the factors of Fitch rankings in the European banking sector," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(2), pages 315-339, August.
    5. Afik, Zvika & Feinstein, Itai & Galil, Koresh, 2014. "The (un)informative value of credit rating announcements in small markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 66-80.
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    8. Petrella, Giovanni & Resti, Andrea, 2017. "What drives the liquidity of sovereign bonds when markets are under stress? An assessment of the new Basel 3 rules on bank liquid assets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 297-310.
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    11. G. Marandola & R. Mossucca, 2016. "When did the stock market start to react less to downgrades by Moody s, S&P and Fitch?," Working Papers wp1066, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bond; Credit spread; Rating; Opaqueness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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