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The effect of industry consolidation and deposit insurance reform on the resiliency of the U.S. bank insurance fund

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  • Jones, Kenneth D.
  • Oshinsky, Robert C.

Abstract

We examine the effects of structural change in the U.S. banking industry, as well as key regulatory changes, including recently enacted deposit insurance reform legislation, on the resiliency of the FDIC-administered bank insurance fund (BIF) by estimating and comparing the probability of BIF insolvency over time. We do this using a Markov-switching model that relies on historical patterns of BIF disbursements to define the probability of switching among three "states" of the banking industry's financial health. Monte Carlo simulations are then performed to project the financial condition of the BIF over a 50-year period. Our results indicate that the insolvency risk to the bank insurance fund has increased significantly due to industry consolidation, and is mainly due to the concentration of deposits in the 10 largest U.S. banking companies. We also find that recent deposit insurance reforms will cause only a marginal reduction in the risk of BIF insolvency. The increased risk associated with a more concentrated industry structure simply dominates the reform effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Jones, Kenneth D. & Oshinsky, Robert C., 2009. "The effect of industry consolidation and deposit insurance reform on the resiliency of the U.S. bank insurance fund," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 57-88, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:5:y:2009:i:1:p:57-88
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    Cited by:

    1. Brett Christophers, 2014. "Competition, Law, and the Power of (Imagined) Geography: Market Definition and the Emergence of Too-Big-to-Fail Banking in the United States," Economic Geography, Clark University, vol. 90(4), pages 429-450, October.
    2. VanHoose, David, 2011. "Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Bank Regulation: A Critical Appraisal," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 33, pages 45-60.
    3. Gómez, Fabiana, 2015. "Failed bank takeovers and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 45-58.
    4. Ho, Chia-Ling & Lai, Gene C. & Lee, Jin-Ping, 2014. "Financial reform and the adequacy of deposit insurance fund: Lessons from Taiwanese experience," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 57-77.

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