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Inflation volatility effects on the allocation of bank loans

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  • Caglayan, Mustafa
  • Xu, Bing

Abstract

This paper examines the distortionary effects of inflation volatility on the allocation of bank loans. We argue that inflation volatility would render bank managers to behave more conservatively in issuing new loans. In contrast, when inflation volatility is low, bank managers would have the latitude to lend more idiosyncratically. Using a large panel of commercial bank data gathered from 15 countries, we provide support for our hypothesis by demonstrating a strong negative relation between inflation volatility and the dispersion of loans-to-assets ratio. Similar results are obtained when we split the sample between EU and non-EU country groups. The robustness of our findings is confirmed by a battery of sensitivity checks.

Suggested Citation

  • Caglayan, Mustafa & Xu, Bing, 2016. "Inflation volatility effects on the allocation of bank loans," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 27-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:24:y:2016:i:c:p:27-39
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2016.04.008
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    Cited by:

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    6. Emma Galli & Danilo V. Mascia & Stefania P. S. Rossi, 2020. "Bank credit constraints for women‐led SMEs: Self‐restraint or lender bias?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1147-1188, September.
    7. Ben Ali, Mohamed Sami & Fhima, Fredj & Nouira, Ridha, 2020. "How does corruption undermine banking stability? A threshold nonlinear framework," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    8. Machokoto, Michael & Chipeta, Chimwemwe & Ibeji, Ngozi, 2021. "The institutional determinants of peer effects on corporate cash holdings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Byrne, Joseph P & Lorusso, Marco & Xu, Bing, 2017. "Oil Prices and Informational Frictions: The Time-Varying Impact of Fundamentals and Expectations," MPRA Paper 80668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Edgar A. Ghossoub & Andre Harrison & Robert R. Reed, 2024. "Capital controls, banking competition, and monetary policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(3), pages 1369-1399, July.
    11. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Bing Xu, 2021. "The impact of uncertainty on financial institutions: A cross‐country study," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3719-3739, July.
    12. Sleibi, Yacoub & Casalin, Fabrizio & Fazio, Giorgio, 2020. "Bank-specific shocks and aggregate leverage: Empirical evidence from a panel of developed countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    13. Gregoriou, Greg N. & Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2021. "The response of hedge fund tail risk to macroeconomic shocks: A nonlinear VAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 843-872.
    14. Mascia, Danilo V. & Rossi, Stefania P.S., 2017. "Is there a gender effect on the cost of bank financing?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 136-153.
    15. Apergis, Nicholas & Danuletiu, Dan & Xu, Bing, 2022. "CDS spreads and COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    16. Pedro Manuel Nogueira Reis & António Pedro Soares Pinto, 2022. "How Do Banking Characteristics Influence Companies’ Debt Features and Performance during COVID-19? A Study of Portuguese Firms," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-29, October.
    17. Koirala, Niraj P. & Nyiwul, Linus, 2023. "Inflation volatility: A Bayesian approach," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 185-201.
    18. Dutra, Tiago M. & Teixeira, João C.A. & Dias, José Carlos, 2023. "Banking regulation and banks’ risk-taking behavior: The role of investors’ protection," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 124-148.
    19. Lyazat TALIMOVA & Gauhar KALKABAYEVA, 2017. "Bank Lending under Macroeconomic Instability Analysis of the Situation in Kazakhstan," Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, ASERS Publishing, vol. 8(4(26)), pages 1345-1349.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank loans; Inflation volatility; Cross-sectional dispersion; International panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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