IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v70y2024ics1544612324012972.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) impacts FinTech: The implication of P2P lending markets

Author

Listed:
  • Zhou, Fuqin
  • Chang, Aichih (Jasmine)
  • Shi, Jim

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of state-level Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on FinTech lending marketplace. Leveraging two large-scale Peer-to-Peer (P2P) datasets of LendingClub and Prosper from 2010 to 2019 alongside the news-based EPU index, we unveil a causal relationship between the EPU and both the interest rates and loan amounts. Economically, a one-standard-deviation increase in EPU causes 4.49 and 8.90 basis points change in P2P loan rates, and 1.56% and 1.28% variation in loan amounts, for LendingClub and Prosper, respectively. Furthermore, the national-sourced EPU has a relatively stronger effect on LendingClub, while the state-sourced EPU imposes more impacts on Prosper.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Fuqin & Chang, Aichih (Jasmine) & Shi, Jim, 2024. "How the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) impacts FinTech: The implication of P2P lending markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:70:y:2024:i:c:s1544612324012972
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.106268
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612324012972
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106268?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Giudici, Paolo & Hadji-Misheva, Branka, 2019. "Latent factor models for credit scoring in P2P systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 522(C), pages 112-121.
    2. Thakor, Anjan, 2020. "Corrigendum to: Fintech and Banking: What Do We Know?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    3. Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Vigne, Samuel A., 2018. "Does economic policy uncertainty predict the Bitcoin returns? An empirical investigation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 145-149.
    4. Aktham Maghyereh & Jinxin Cui, 2024. "The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Systemic Risk in the Fintech Industry: Evidence from Crisis Events and the COVID-19 Pandemic," Financial Economics Letters, Anser Press, vol. 3(1), pages 40-51, January.
    5. Jagtiani, Julapa & Lemieux, Catharine, 2018. "Do fintech lenders penetrate areas that are underserved by traditional banks?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 43-54.
    6. Kannadhasan, M. & Das, Debojyoti, 2020. "Do Asian emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk alike? A quantile regression approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    7. Armen A. Alchian, 1950. "Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(3), pages 211-211.
    8. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
    9. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    10. Baker, Scott R. & Davis, Steven J. & Levy, Jeffrey A., 2022. "State-level economic policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 81-99.
    11. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
    12. Bordo, Michael D. & Duca, John V. & Koch, Christoffer, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: Aggregate and bank level U.S. evidence over several decades," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 90-106.
    13. Hsieh, Hui-Ching & Vu, Thi Huyen Chi, 2021. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty on crowdfunding success," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Barraza, Santiago & Civelli, Andrea, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the supply of business loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    15. Hu, Shiwei & Gong, Di, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, prudential regulation and bank lending," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 373-378.
    16. Chiang, Thomas C., 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, risk and stock returns: Evidence from G7 stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 41-49.
    17. Babaei, Golnoosh & Giudici, Paolo & Raffinetti, Emanuela, 2023. "Explainable FinTech lending," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 125.
    18. Chen, Xiao & Chong, Zhaohui & Giudici, Paolo & Huang, Bihong, 2022. "Network centrality effects in peer to peer lending," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
    19. Huan Tang, 2019. "Peer-to-Peer Lenders Versus Banks: Substitutes or Complements?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 1900-1938.
    20. Armelius, Hanna & Hull, Isaiah & Stenbacka Köhler, Hanna, 2017. "The timing of uncertainty shocks in a small open economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 31-34.
    21. Li Yi Thong & Ricky Chee Jiun Chia & Mohd Fahmi Ghazali, 2024. "Does Uncertainty Indices Impact the Cryptocurrency Market," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 101-114.
    22. Riza Emekter & Yanbin Tu & Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Min Lu, 2015. "Evaluating credit risk and loan performance in online Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 54-70, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sabani, Nazmie & Bales, Stephan & Burghof, Hans-Peter, 2024. "On the different impact of local and national sources of policy uncertainty on sectoral stock volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PB).
    2. Duan, Yuejiao & Fan, Xiaoyun & Wang, Yu, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank systemic risk: A cross-country analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Deng, Wei & Gao, Lei & Xing, Fei & Yang, Ming, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, bank deposits, and liability structure," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    4. Nguyen, Thanh Pham Thien & Nghiem, Son & Tripe, David, 2021. "Does oil price aggravate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on bank performance in India?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    5. Tan, Xueping & Zhong, Yiran & Vivian, Andrew & Geng, Yong & Wang, Ziyi & Zhao, Difei, 2024. "Towards an era of multi-source uncertainty: A systematic and bibliometric analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    6. Anh‐Tuan Doan & Anh‐Tuan Le & Quan Tran, 2020. "Economic uncertainty, ownership structure and small and medium enterprises performance," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 102-137, June.
    7. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Le, Thai-Ha & Su, Thanh Dinh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and credit growth: Evidence from a global sample," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    8. Nguyen, Minh Hong & Trinh, Vu Quang, 2023. "U.K. economic policy uncertainty and innovation activities: A firm-level analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    9. Croux, Christophe & Jagtiani, Julapa & Korivi, Tarunsai & Vulanovic, Milos, 2020. "Important factors determining Fintech loan default: Evidence from a lendingclub consumer platform," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 270-296.
    10. Demir, Ender & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk, 2021. "The impact of economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks on bank credit," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    11. Choi, Young Mok & Park, Kunsu, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and dividend policy: Insight from private firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    12. Gong, Di & Jiang, Tao & Li, Zhao & Wu, Weixing, 2022. "Optimal loan contracting under policy uncertainty: Theory and international evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. He, Feng & Ma, Yaming & Zhang, Xiaojie, 2020. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate Innovation?–Evidence from China listed companies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 225-239.
    14. Smales, Lee A., 2020. "Examining the relationship between policy uncertainty and market uncertainty across the G7," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Cui, Xin & Wang, Chunfeng & Liao, Jing & Fang, Zhenming & Cheng, Feiyang, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty exposure and corporate innovation investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Baumöhl, Eduard & Lyócsa, Štefan & Vašaničová, Petra, 2024. "Macroeconomic environment and the future performance of loans: Evidence from three peer-to-peer platforms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    17. Peterson Kitakogelu Ozili, 2020. "Financial reporting under economic policy uncertainty," Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 19(2), pages 325-338, December.
    18. Zhang, Dongyang & Guo, Yumei & Wang, Zhaorui & Chen, Yanbin, 2020. "The impact of US monetary policy on Chinese enterprises’ R&D investment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    19. Bajaj, Yukti & Kashiramka, Smita & Singh, Shveta, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and leverage dynamics: Evidence from an emerging economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. Nigmonov, Asror & Shams, Syed & Alam, Khorshed, 2024. "Liquidity risk in FinTech lending: Early impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the P2P lending market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:70:y:2024:i:c:s1544612324012972. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.