IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v69y2024ipas154461232401105x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The nexus between local government debt risk, real estate sector, and financial stability

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Yulong

Abstract

Rising local government debt and downturn in the real estate sector pose significant challenges to China’s economic growth and financial stability. To analyze these challenges, this paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to study the nexus between government debt risk, real estate sector, and financial stability. The findings suggest that an increase in debt risk initiated by a housing demand shock could have a persistent and magnified effect on the financial sector and the macroeconomy. The amplification mechanism originates from risk spillover and debt crowding-out effect, which trigger the negative feedback between the debt and financial risk. Longer debt maturity and the implementation of credit policy could effectively moderate the contractionary effects of this risk interaction on the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Yulong, 2024. "The nexus between local government debt risk, real estate sector, and financial stability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:69:y:2024:i:pa:s154461232401105x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.106075
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S154461232401105X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106075?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rigobon, Roberto, 2018. "Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 150-181.
    2. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 547-599, Elsevier.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    4. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2014. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks, and Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 819-866, April.
    5. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    6. Bottero, Margherita & Lenzu, Simone & Mezzanotti, Filippo, 2020. "Sovereign debt exposure and the bank lending channel: Impact on credit supply and the real economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. van der Kwaak, C.G.F. & van Wijnbergen, S.J.G., 2014. "Financial fragility, sovereign default risk and the limits to commercial bank bail-outs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 218-240.
    8. Mark Gertler & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2015. "Banking, Liquidity, and Bank Runs in an Infinite Horizon Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(7), pages 2011-2043, July.
    9. Ballester, Laura & Casu, Barbara & González-Urteaga, Ana, 2016. "Bank fragility and contagion: Evidence from the bank CDS market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 394-416.
    10. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
    11. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    12. Luigi Bocola, 2016. "The Pass-Through of Sovereign Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 879-926.
    13. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Queralto, Albert, 2012. "Financial crises, bank risk exposure and government financial policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 17-34.
    14. Marcello Bofondi & Luisa Carpinelli & Enrico Sette, 2018. "Credit Supply During a Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 696-729.
    15. Crosignani, Matteo, 2021. "Bank capital, government bond holdings, and sovereign debt capacity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 693-704.
    16. Brutti, Filippo, 2011. "Sovereign defaults and liquidity crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 65-72, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Corbisiero, Giuseppe, 2022. "Bank lending, collateral, and credit traps in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Neele Balke, 2018. "The Employment Cost of Sovereign Default," 2018 Meeting Papers 1256, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Vivek Sharma & Edgar Silgado-Gómez, 2019. "Sovereign Spread Volatility and Banking Sector," CEIS Research Paper 454, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 Mar 2019.
    4. Coimbra, Nuno, 2020. "Sovereigns at risk: A dynamic model of sovereign debt and banking leverage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Christiaan Kwaak & Sweder Wijnbergen, 2017. "Sovereign debt and bank fragility in Spain," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(3), pages 511-543, August.
    6. Kirchner Philipp, 2020. "On Shadow Banking and Financial Frictions in DSGE Modeling," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 71(2), pages 101-133, August.
    7. Philipp Kirchner, 2020. "On shadow banking and fiÂ…nancial frictions in DSGE modeling," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202019, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    8. Andre Diniz & Bernardo Guimaraes, 2014. "Financial Disruption as a Cost of Sovereign Default: a quantative assessment," Discussion Papers 1427, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    9. Dominik Thaler, 2021. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks and Exclusion from International Capital Markets," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(635), pages 1401-1427.
    10. Minjie Deng & Chang Liu, 2021. "Sovereign Risk and Intangible Investment," Discussion Papers dp21-16, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    11. Anil Ari, 2015. "Sovereign Risk and Bank Risk-Taking," Working Papers 202, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    12. Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2020. "Financial intermediation, resource allocation, and macroeconomic interdependence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 265-278.
    13. Diniz, André & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2023. "How diabolic is the sovereign-bank loop? The effects of post-default fiscal policies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 601-634, April.
    14. Sosa-Padilla, César, 2018. "Sovereign defaults and banking crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 88-105.
    15. Deng, Minjie & Liu, Chang, 2024. "Sovereign risk and intangible investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    16. van der Kwaak, C.G.F. & van Wijnbergen, S.J.G., 2014. "Financial fragility, sovereign default risk and the limits to commercial bank bail-outs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 218-240.
    17. Kirchner, Markus & Wijnbergen, Sweder van, 2016. "Fiscal deficits, financial fragility, and the effectiveness of government policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 51-68.
    18. Crosignani, Matteo & Faria-e-Castro, Miguel & Fonseca, Luís, 2020. "The (Unintended?) consequences of the largest liquidity injection ever," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 97-112.
    19. van der Kwaak, Christiaan, 2017. "Financial Fragility and Unconventional Central Bank Lending Operations," Research Report 17005-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    20. Claudio Borio & Marc Farag & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2023. "Tackling the fiscal policy-financial stability nexus," BIS Working Papers 1090, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign default risk; Risk spillover; Financial stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:69:y:2024:i:pa:s154461232401105x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.