IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v58y2023ipcs1544612323010152.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of CBDC narrative by central banks using large language models

Author

Listed:
  • Alonso-Robisco, Andres
  • Carbó, José Manuel

Abstract

One topic that is gaining importance in central bank communication is central bank digital currency (CBDC). To better understand central banks’ stance towards CBDCs, we used different natural language processing techniques on a set of central bank speeches. We found that the sentiment calculated by Large Language Models, and in particular by ChatGPT, is the one that most resembles the sentiment identified by human experts in those same speeches. Our study suggests that LLMs are an effective tool for improving sentiment measurements on specific policy texts, although they are not infallible and may be subject to new risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Alonso-Robisco, Andres & Carbó, José Manuel, 2023. "Analysis of CBDC narrative by central banks using large language models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:58:y:2023:i:pc:s1544612323010152
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104643
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612323010152
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104643?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mehl, Arnaud & Stracca, Livio, 2022. "Central bank digital currency in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 54-68.
    2. Eun Young Oh & Shuonan Zhang, 2022. "Informal economy and central bank digital currency," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1520-1539, October.
    3. Lorenzo Burlon & Manuel A. Muñoz & Frank Smets, 2024. "The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 172-217, October.
    4. Wang, Yizhi & Lucey, Brian M. & Vigne, Samuel A. & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "The Effects of Central Bank Digital Currencies News on Financial Markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    5. Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2016. "The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3133-3158, October.
    6. Davoodalhosseini, Seyed Mohammadreza, 2022. "Central bank digital currency and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    7. Raphael A. Auer & Giulio Cornelli & Jon Frost, 2020. "Rise of the Central Bank Digital Currencies: Drivers, Approaches and Technologies," CESifo Working Paper Series 8655, CESifo.
    8. Korinek, Anton, 2023. "Language Models and Cognitive Automation for Economic Research," CEPR Discussion Papers 17923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Cyril Monnet & Hyun Song Shin & Jon Frost & Leonardo Gambacorta & Raphael Auer & Tara Rice, 2022. "Central Bank Digital Currencies: Motives, Economic Implications, and the Research Frontier," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 697-721, August.
    10. Boyu Zhang & Hongyang Yang & Xiao-Yang Liu, 2023. "Instruct-FinGPT: Financial Sentiment Analysis by Instruction Tuning of General-Purpose Large Language Models," Papers 2306.12659, arXiv.org.
    11. Scharnowski, Stefan, 2022. "Central bank speeches and digital currency competition," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    12. Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian, 2023. "ChatGPT for (Finance) research: The Bananarama Conjecture," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    13. Raphael Auer & Rainer Boehme, 2020. "The technology of retail central bank digital currency," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    14. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. ITO Arata & SATO Masahiro & OTA Rui, 2024. "Content-based Metric on Monetary Policy Uncertainty by Using Large Language Models," Discussion papers 24080, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dionysopoulos, Lambis & Marra, Miriam & Urquhart, Andrew, 2024. "Central bank digital currencies: A critical review," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Jabbar, Abdul & Geebren, Ahmed & Hussain, Zahid & Dani, Samir & Ul-Durar, Shajara, 2023. "Investigating individual privacy within CBDC: A privacy calculus perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Copestake, Alexander & Furceri, Davide & Gonzalez-Dominguez, Pablo, 2023. "Crypto market responses to digital asset policies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    4. Cong, Lin William & Mayer, Simon, 2022. "The Coming Battle of Digital Currencies," Applied Economics and Policy Working Paper Series 320020, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    5. Moro, Alessandro & Nispi Landi, Valerio, 2024. "The external financial spillovers of CBDCs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    6. Mishra, Bineet & Prasad, Eswar, 2024. "A simple model of a central bank digital currency," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    7. Agur, Itai & Ari, Anil & Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni, 2022. "Designing central bank digital currencies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 62-79.
    8. Magin, Jana & Neyer, Ulrike & Stempel, Daniel, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Different CBDC Regimes in an Economy with a Heterogeneous Household Sector," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277656, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Cotugno, Matteo & Manta, Francesco & Perdichizzi, Salvatore & Stefanelli, Valeria, 2024. "Ready for a digital Euro? Insights from a research agenda," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    10. Luu, Hiep Ngoc & Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2023. "Implications of central bank digital currency for financial stability: Evidence from the global banking sector," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    11. Hoang, Yen Hai & Ngo, Vu Minh & Bich Vu, Ngoc, 2023. "Central bank digital currency: A systematic literature review using text mining approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    12. Philippe Bacchetta & Elena Perazzi, 2021. "CBDC as Imperfect Substitute for Bank Deposits: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 21-81, Swiss Finance Institute.
    13. Raphael A. Auer & Giulio Cornelli & Jon Frost, 2020. "Rise of the Central Bank Digital Currencies: Drivers, Approaches and Technologies," CESifo Working Paper Series 8655, CESifo.
    14. Danny Hermawan & Denny Lie & Aryo Sasongko & Richard I. Yusan, 2023. "Money velocity, digital currency, and inflation dynamics," Working Papers 2023-01, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    15. Paulo Rupino Cunha & Paulo Melo & Helder Sebastião, 2021. "From Bitcoin to Central Bank Digital Currencies: Making Sense of the Digital Money Revolution," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-19, June.
    16. Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2023. "The impact of central bank digital currency news on the stock and cryptocurrency markets: Evidence from the TVP-VAR model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    17. Wang, Yizhi & Wei, Yu & Lucey, Brian M. & Su, Yang, 2023. "Return spillover analysis across central bank digital currency attention and cryptocurrency markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. Schilling, Linda & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Uhlig, Harald, 2024. "Central bank digital currency: When price and bank stability collide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    19. Peterson K. Ozili, 2022. "Central bank digital currency research around the world: a review of literature," Journal of Money Laundering Control, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(2), pages 215-226, January.
    20. Li, Jiaqi, 2023. "Predicting the demand for central bank digital currency: A structural analysis with survey data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 73-85.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ChatGPT; BERT; CBDC; Digital money;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:58:y:2023:i:pc:s1544612323010152. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.