IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v58y2023ipcs1544612323008577.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate change economics and the determinants of carbon emissions’ futures returns: A regime-driven ARDL model

Author

Listed:
  • Kotsompolis, Giorgos
  • Konstantakis, Konstantinos N.
  • Xidonas, Panos
  • Michaelides, Panayotis G.
  • Thomakos, Dimitrios D.

Abstract

This paper employs a Markov Switching Regime (MSR) ARDL model to investigate the determinants of future carbon emission returns, considering distinct regimes of mean and volatility. Utilizing daily data from January 16, 2009, to July 1, 2021, we analyze carbon emissions allowances and returns of major energy commodities. We identify two persistent regimes: high returns with low volatility and low returns with increased volatility. Fluctuations in oil prices significantly influence carbon emissions prices during specific states. Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) reveal short-term fluctuations in carbon emissions returns due to shocks in energy commodity returns, with varying effects between the regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Kotsompolis, Giorgos & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Xidonas, Panos & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2023. "Climate change economics and the determinants of carbon emissions’ futures returns: A regime-driven ARDL model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:58:y:2023:i:pc:s1544612323008577
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104485
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612323008577
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104485?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luc Bauwens & Arie Preminger & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2010. "Theory and inference for a Markov switching GARCH model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 13(2), pages 218-244, July.
    2. Leonor Dormido & Isabel Garrido & Pilar L´Hotellerie-Fallois & Javier Santillán, 2023. "Climate change and sustainable growth: international initiatives and European policies," Occasional Papers 2213, Banco de España.
    3. Gozgor, Giray & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Khraief, Naceur & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2019. "Dependence structure between business cycles and CO2 emissions in the U.S.: Evidence from the time-varying Markov-Switching Copula models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    4. Song, Wonho & Ryu, Doojin & Webb, Robert I., 2016. "Overseas market shocks and VKOSPI dynamics: A Markov-switching approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 275-282.
    5. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    6. Just, Małgorzata & Echaust, Krzysztof, 2020. "Stock market returns, volatility, correlation and liquidity during the COVID-19 crisis: Evidence from the Markov switching approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    7. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
    8. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    9. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2022. "Re-examination of risk-return dynamics in international equity markets and the role of policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and VIX: Evidence using Markov-switching copulas," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mhadhbi, Mayssa, 2024. "The interconnected carbon, fossil fuels, and clean energy markets: Exploring Europe and China's perspectives on climate change," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2018. "Multi-moment risk, hedging strategies, & the business cycle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 637-675.
    2. Stefan Fiesel & Marliese Uhrig-Homburg, 2016. "Illiquidity Transmission in a Three-Country Framework: A Conditional Approach," Schmalenbach Business Review, Springer;Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft, vol. 17(3), pages 261-284, December.
    3. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    4. Nemati, Mehdi & Saghaian, Sayed H., 2016. "Dynamics of Price Adjustment in Qualitatively Differentiated Markets in the U.S.: The Case of Organic and Conventional Apples," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 229950, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    6. Ataurima Arellano, Miguel & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2020. "Empirical modeling of high-income and emerging stock and Forex market return volatility using Markov-switching GARCH models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Liow, Kim Hiang & Huang, Yuting, 2018. "The dynamics of volatility connectedness in international real estate investment trusts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 195-210.
    8. Hunt, Julien & Devolder, Pierre, 2011. "Semi Markov regime switching interest rate models and minimal entropy measure," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2011010, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    9. Houda Rharrabti Zaid, 2015. "Transmission du stress financier de la zone euro aux Pays de l’Europe Centrale et Orientale," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-37, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    10. Gaia Garino & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Speculative Bubbles in U.K. House Prices: Some New Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(4), pages 777-795, April.
    11. Dmitry Kulikov, 2012. "Testing for Rational Speculative Bubbles on the Estonian Stock Market," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 4(1).
    12. Masaru Chiba, 2023. "Robust and efficient specification tests in Markov-switching autoregressive models," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 99-137, April.
    13. Gao, Huan & Mamon, Rogemar & Liu, Xiaoming & Tenyakov, Anton, 2015. "Mortality modelling with regime-switching for the valuation of a guaranteed annuity option," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 108-120.
    14. Kim, Young Min & Lee, Seojin, 2023. "Spillover shifts in the FX market: Implication for the behavior of a safe haven currency," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Singh, Tarlok, 2014. "On the regime-switching and asymmetric dynamics of economic growth in the OECD countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 169-192.
    16. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 402-412.
    17. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2015. "Global Recession and Eurozone Debt Crisis: Impact on Exports of China and India," Working Papers id:7386, eSocialSciences.
    18. Andreas Graflund, 2000. "A Bayes Inference Approach to Testing Mean Reversion in the Swedish Stock Market," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1363, Econometric Society.
    19. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
    20. Bulla, Jan & Mergner, Sascha & Bulla, Ingo & Sesboüé, André & Chesneau, Christophe, 2010. "Markov-switching Asset Allocation: Do Profitable Strategies Exist?," MPRA Paper 21154, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:58:y:2023:i:pc:s1544612323008577. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.