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EU Climate Change News Index: Forecasting EU ETS prices with online news

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  • Hartvig, Áron Dénes
  • Pap, Áron
  • Pálos, Péter

Abstract

Carbon prices have been rapidly increasing in the EU since 2018 and accurate forecasting of EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) prices has become essential. This paper proposes a novel method to generate alternative predictors for daily ETS price returns using relevant online news information. We devise the EU Climate Change News Index by calculating the term frequency–inverse document frequency (TF–IDF) feature for climate change-related keywords. The index is capable of tracking the ongoing debate about climate change in the EU. Finally, we show that incorporating the index in a simple predictive model significantly improves forecasts of ETS price returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Hartvig, Áron Dénes & Pap, Áron & Pálos, Péter, 2023. "EU Climate Change News Index: Forecasting EU ETS prices with online news," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:54:y:2023:i:c:s1544612323000946
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.103720
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhong, Meirui & Zhang, Rui & Ren, Xiaohang, 2023. "The time-varying effects of liquidity and market efficiency of the European Union carbon market: Evidence from the TVP-SVAR-SV approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    2. Liu, Dinggao & Chen, Kaijie & Cai, Yi & Tang, Zhenpeng, 2024. "Interpretable EU ETS Phase 4 prices forecasting based on deep generative data augmentation approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    3. Chiappari, Mattia & Scotti, Francesco & Flori, Andrea, 2024. "Market responses to spillovers in the energy commodity markets: Evaluating short-term vs. long-term effects and business-as-usual vs. distressed phases," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emissions trading system; Carbon price prediction; Online news; TF–IDF; Climate change; Market index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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