IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v49y2022ics1544612322003725.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using the pension multiple to measure retirement outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Minney, Aaron
  • Zhu, Zili
  • Guo, Ying
  • Li, Jiaming
  • Toscas, Peter
  • Koo, Bonsoo
  • Pantelous, Athanasios A.

Abstract

This paper presents a simple and intuitive measure of retirement income adequacy: the Pension Multiple which captures and quantifies the level of income for each future retirement year as a multiple of the government-provided social security pension. This Pension Multiple at each future retirement year is then mortality-weighted to produce an average Pension Multiple for the entire retirement. An expected shortfall from this average Pension Multiple is introduced to measure the potential shortfall at each future retirement year from the average Pension Multiple. A single measure of retirement income and potential shortfall is then calculated as the averaged Pension Multiple minus the averaged expected shortfall, which is called the adjusted Pension Multiple. Finally, any residual estate is also included as part of the retirement income adequacy measure. The Pension Multiple and estate residue can be calculated by any forecast model for future retirement income. In this paper, we use a robust stochastic forecasting model to demonstrate the effectiveness of using the Pension Multiple to measure and compare different retirement income strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Minney, Aaron & Zhu, Zili & Guo, Ying & Li, Jiaming & Toscas, Peter & Koo, Bonsoo & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2022. "Using the pension multiple to measure retirement outcomes," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:49:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322003725
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103149
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612322003725
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103149?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Wen & Koo, Bonsoo & Wang, Yunxiao & O’Hare, Colin & Langrené, Nicolas & Toscas, Peter & Zhu, Zili, 2021. "Using a stochastic economic scenario generator to analyse uncertain superannuation and retirement outcomes," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 549-566, November.
    2. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1991. "How Strong Are Bequest Motives? Evidence Based on Estimates of the Demand for Life Insurance and Annuities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 899-927, October.
    3. Chen, Wen & Minney, Aaron & Toscas, Peter & Koo, Bonsoo & Zhu, Zili & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2021. "Personalised drawdown strategies and partial annuitisation to mitigate longevity risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    4. Blake, David & Wright, Douglas & Zhang, Yumeng, 2014. "Age-dependent investing: Optimal funding and investment strategies in defined contribution pension plans when members are rational life cycle financial planners," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 105-124.
    5. Butt, Adam & Khemka, Gaurav, 2015. "The effect of objective formulation on retirement decision making," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 385-395.
    6. Koo, Bonsoo & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Wang, Yunxiao, 2022. "Novel utility-based life cycle models to optimise income in retirement," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 346-361.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gaurav Khemka & Yifu Tang & Geoffrey J. Warren, 2021. "The ‘right’ level for the superannuation guarantee: identifying the key considerations," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4435-4474, September.
    2. Maria Alexandrova & Nadine Gatzert, 2019. "What Do We Know About Annuitization Decisions?," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 57-100, March.
    3. Jiang Cheng & Lu Yu, 2019. "Life and health insurance consumption in China: demographic and environmental risks," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(1), pages 67-101, January.
    4. Dong, Yinghui & Zheng, Harry, 2019. "Optimal investment of DC pension plan under short-selling constraints and portfolio insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 47-59.
    5. Hippolyte d’Albis & Emmanuel Thibault, 2018. "Ambiguous life expectancy and the demand for annuities," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 85(3), pages 303-319, October.
    6. Shinichi Nishiyama, 2000. "Bequests, Inter Vivos Transfers, and Wealth Distribution: Technical Paper 2000-8," Working Papers 13332, Congressional Budget Office.
    7. Joachim Inkmann & Alexander Michaelides, 2012. "Can the Life Insurance Market Provide Evidence for a Bequest Motive?," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 671-695, September.
    8. Facundo Piguillem & Guillermo Ordonez, 2015. "Retirement in the Shadow (Banking)," 2015 Meeting Papers 1200, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Kaganovich, Michael & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1999. "Education, social security, and growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 289-309, February.
    10. Lee M. Lockwood, 2018. "Incidental Bequests and the Choice to Self-Insure Late-Life Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2513-2550, September.
    11. Monika Bütler & Federica Teppa, 2007. "The Choice between an Annuity and a Lump Sum: Results from Swiss Pension Funds," NBER Chapters, in: Public Policy and Retirement, Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), pages 1944-1966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Robert Fenge & Jakob Weizsäcker, 2001. "Compulsory Savings: Efficiency and Redistribution On the Interaction of Means Tested Basic Income and Public Pensions," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 8(4), pages 637-652, August.
    13. J. François Outreville, 2013. "The Relationship Between Insurance and Economic Development: 85 Empirical Papers for a Review of the Literature," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 71-122, March.
    14. Vaz, Thalita A. & Machado, Sérgio J. & Bortoluzzo, Adriana B., 2011. "Estimation of Conversion Rates into Annuities: A Brazilian Perspective," Insper Working Papers wpe_249, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    15. Zeng, Yan & Li, Danping & Chen, Zheng & Yang, Zhou, 2018. "Ambiguity aversion and optimal derivative-based pension investment with stochastic income and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 70-103.
    16. Aura, Saku, 2005. "Does the balance of power within a family matter? The case of the Retirement Equity Act," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1699-1717, September.
    17. repec:idb:brikps:365 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Hugo Benitez-Silva, 2001. "A Dynamic Model of Job Search Behavior over the Life Cycle with Empirical Applications," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 100, Society for Computational Economics.
    19. Alicia H. Munnell & Gal Wettstein & Wenliang Hou, 2022. "How best to annuitize defined contribution assets?," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(1), pages 211-235, March.
    20. Subir Sen & S Madheswaran, 2013. "Regional determinants of life insurance consumption: evidence from selected Asian economies," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 27(2), pages 86-103, November.
    21. Brown, Jeffrey R., 2001. "Private pensions, mortality risk, and the decision to annuitize," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 29-62, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:49:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322003725. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.