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Using Soccer Games as an Instrument to Forecast the Spread of COVID-19 in Europe

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  • Gómez, Juan-Pedro
  • Mironov, Maxim

Abstract

We provide strong empirical support for the contribution of soccer games held in Europe to the spread of the COVID-19 virus in March 2020. We analyze more than 1,000 games across 194 regions from 10 European countries. Daily cases of COVID-19 grow significantly faster in regions where at least one soccer game took place two weeks earlier, consistent with the existence of an incubation period. These results weaken as we include stadiums with smaller capacity. We discuss the relevance of these variables as instruments for the identification of the causal effect of COVID-19 on firms, the economy, and financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Gómez, Juan-Pedro & Mironov, Maxim, 2021. "Using Soccer Games as an Instrument to Forecast the Spread of COVID-19 in Europe," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:43:y:2021:i:c:s1544612321000738
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.101992
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dave, Dhaval M. & Friedson, Andrew I. & McNichols, Drew & Sabia, Joseph J., 2020. "The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13670, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Nikolaou, Paraskevas & Dimitriou, Loukas, 2020. "Identification of critical airports for controlling global infectious disease outbreaks: Stress-tests focusing in Europe," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    3. Alex Edmans & Diego García & Øyvind Norli, 2007. "Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1967-1998, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Jonas Dehning & Sebastian B. Mohr & Sebastian Contreras & Philipp Dönges & Emil N. Iftekhar & Oliver Schulz & Philip Bechtle & Viola Priesemann, 2023. "Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Iyer, Subramanian Rama & Simkins, Betty J., 2022. "COVID-19 and the Economy: Summary of research and future directions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Soccer; Super-spreaders; Instrumental variables; Identification strategy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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