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Trading signal, functional data analysis and time series momentum

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  • Boubaker, Sabri
  • Liu, Zhenya
  • Lu, Shanglin
  • Zhang, Yifan

Abstract

Prior empirical results show that the time series momentum portfolio outperformed the buy-and-hold benchmark well from 1985 to 2009, but this profitable pattern unexpectedly vanishes after 2009. In this paper, we reconstruct the time series momentum portfolio by applying new trading rules derived from the functional data analysis approaches. Using a dataset that contains 24 commodities from January 2010 to December 2018, our daily-based strategy documents an improvement in the Sharpe ratio of 0.75 compared to 0.07 in terms of the original time series momentum portfolio. This finding offers an alternative strategy for trend-following investors in the commodity futures market.

Suggested Citation

  • Boubaker, Sabri & Liu, Zhenya & Lu, Shanglin & Zhang, Yifan, 2021. "Trading signal, functional data analysis and time series momentum," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:42:y:2021:i:c:s1544612321000143
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.101933
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    1. Ruanmin Cao & Lajos Horváth & Zhenya Liu & Yuqian Zhao, 2020. "A study of data-driven momentum and disposition effects in the Chinese stock market by functional data analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 335-358, January.
    2. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Kai & Li, Youwei, 2018. "Asset allocation with time series momentum and reversal," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 441-457.
    3. Clifford S. Asness & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Value and Momentum Everywhere," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 929-985, June.
    4. Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Ooi, Yao Hua & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2012. "Time series momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 228-250.
    5. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-667.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boubaker, Sabri & Liu, Zhenya & Zhan, Yaosong, 2022. "Customer relationships, corporate social responsibility, and stock price reaction: Lessons from China during health crisis times," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    2. Ming, Lei & Song, Wuqi & Dong, Minyi, 2023. "Revisiting time series momentum in China's commodity futures market: Evidence on sources of momentum profits," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Futures pricing; Time series momentum; Trading signal; Functional data analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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