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How do sovereign credit default swap spreads behave under extreme oil price movements? Evidence from G7 and BRICS countries

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  • Wang, Jun
  • Sun, Xiaolei
  • Li, Jianping

Abstract

Based on the GARCHCopula-CoVaR model, this paper explores the behavior of sovereign CDS spreads under extreme oil price movements by taking G7 and BRICS countries as examples. We reveal that the upside/downside CoVaR values of sovereign CDS spreads differ significantly from VaR values among all countries. This phenomenon illustrates that extreme oil returns are vital risks for both emerging and developed markets. Moreover, the impact of extreme oil returns on oil importers differs depending on the economic stability of each country, which is reflected in the heterogeneity of the spillover intensity.

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  • Wang, Jun & Sun, Xiaolei & Li, Jianping, 2020. "How do sovereign credit default swap spreads behave under extreme oil price movements? Evidence from G7 and BRICS countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:34:y:2020:i:c:s1544612319306981
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2019.101350
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    3. Bondatti, Massimiliano & Rillo, Giovanni, 2022. "Commodity tail-risk and exchange rates," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
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    6. Yihong Ma & Simon Cottrell & Sarath Delpachitra & Xiao Yu & Ping Jiang & Quan Tran Ha Minh, 2023. "What Drives Credit Spreads of Oil Companies? Evidence from the Upstream, Integrated and Downstream Industries," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(5), pages 277-300, September.
    7. Bajaj, Vimmy & Kumar, Pawan & Singh, Vipul Kumar, 2023. "Systemwide directional connectedness from Crude Oil to sovereign credit risk," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    8. Xie, Qiwei & Cheng, Lu & Liu, Ranran & Zheng, Xiaolong & Li, Jingyu, 2023. "COVID-19 and risk spillovers of China's major financial markets: Evidence from time-varying variance decomposition and wavelet coherence analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Yihong Ma, Simon Cottrell, Sarath Delpachitra, Xiao Yu, Ping Jiang, and Quan Tran Ha Minh, 2023. "What Drives Credit Spreads of Oil Companies? Evidence from the Upstream, Integrated and Downstream Industries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
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    13. Hao, Jun & Feng, Qianqian & Yuan, Jiaxin & Sun, Xiaolei & Li, Jianping, 2022. "A dynamic ensemble learning with multi-objective optimization for oil prices prediction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Wang, Qunwei & Liu, Mengmeng & Xiao, Ling & Dai, Xingyu & Li, Matthew C. & Wu, Fei, 2022. "Conditional sovereign CDS in market basket risk scenario: A dynamic vine-copula analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    15. Cheuathonghua, Massaporn & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Pavlova, Ivelina & Wongkantarakorn, Jutamas, 2022. "Extreme risk spillovers from commodity indexes to sovereign CDS spreads of commodity dependent countries: A VAR quantile analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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