IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v13y2015icp29-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A simple model of market valuation and trend reversion for U.S. equities: 100 Years of bubbles, non-bubbles, and inverse-bubbles

Author

Listed:
  • Godek, Paul E.

Abstract

Appraising the current valuation of equity markets is a popular pastime for academics, investors, and pundits alike. Here I consider a measure of valuation based on a century-long trend of U.S. equity returns and the tendency of returns to revert (eventually) to that trend. The approach here is to incorporate a simple trend into an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. The empirical results offer some support for the theoretical description, though not to an extent that would cause harm to the concept of efficient markets. The reconciliation of trend reversion with market efficiency lies in the weakness of the trend’s “gravitational pull.” The results do, however, provide an operational measure for describing markets as over- or under-valued, which indicates that “bubbles” and “inverse bubbles” are both common.

Suggested Citation

  • Godek, Paul E., 2015. "A simple model of market valuation and trend reversion for U.S. equities: 100 Years of bubbles, non-bubbles, and inverse-bubbles," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 29-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:13:y:2015:i:c:p:29-35
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2015.03.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612315000343
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2015.03.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lo, Andrew W & Wang, Jiang, 1995. "Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 87-129, March.
    2. Robert J. Shiller, 2014. "Speculative Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1486-1517, June.
    3. Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272.
    4. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    5. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    6. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    7. Eugene F. Fama, 2014. "Two Pillars of Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1467-1485, June.
    8. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Non‐Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck‐based models and some of their uses in financial economics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(2), pages 167-241.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amairi, Haifa & Zantour, Ahlem & Saadi, Samir, 2021. "Information dissemination and price discovery," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    2. Choi, Jaehyung, 2012. "Spontaneous symmetry breaking of arbitrage," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(11), pages 3206-3218.
    3. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    4. John Fender, 2020. "Beyond the efficient markets hypothesis: Towards a new paradigm," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 333-351, July.
    5. Jaehyung Choi, 2011. "Spontaneous symmetry breaking of arbitrage," Papers 1107.5122, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2012.
    6. Bouasker, O. & Letifi, N. & Prigent, J.-L., 2016. "Optimal funding and hiring/firing policies with mean reverting demand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 569-579.
    7. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    8. Calcagnini, Giorgio & Saltari, Enrico, 2000. "Real and Financial Uncertainty and Investment Decisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 491-514, July.
    9. Radu Tunaru, 2015. "Model Risk in Financial Markets:From Financial Engineering to Risk Management," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9524, December.
    10. Fan, Jianqing & Fan, Yingying & Jiang, Jiancheng, 2007. "Dynamic Integration of Time- and State-Domain Methods for Volatility Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 618-631, June.
    11. Xiaowei Zhang & Peter W. Glynn, 2018. "Affine Jump-Diffusions: Stochastic Stability and Limit Theorems," Papers 1811.00122, arXiv.org.
    12. da Fonseca, Regina C.B. & Figueiredo, Annibal & de Castro, Márcio T. & Mendes, Fábio M., 2013. "Generalized Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process by Doob’s theorem and the time evolution of financial prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(7), pages 1671-1680.
    13. Bin Chen & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Characteristic Function-Based Testing for Multifactor Continuous-Time Markov Models via Nonparametri," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    14. Adland, Roar & Jia, Haiying & Lu, Jing, 2008. "Price dynamics in the market for Liquid Petroleum Gas transport," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 818-828, May.
    15. Beatriz Mota Aragón, 2011. "Capital Investments and Real Options: New Proposals," Revista de Administración, Finanzas y Economía (Journal of Management, Finance and Economics), Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México, vol. 5(1), pages 65-76.
    16. Frontczak, Robert & Rostek, Stefan, 2015. "Modeling loss given default with stochastic collateral," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 162-170.
    17. Lin, Xiaoji & Wang, Chong & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2018. "Investment, Tobin’s q, and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 620-640.
    18. Postali, Fernando A.S. & Picchetti, Paulo, 2006. "Geometric Brownian Motion and structural breaks in oil prices: A quantitative analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 506-522, July.
    19. Kyriakos Georgiou & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2023. "Probability of Default modelling with L\'evy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and applications in credit risk under the IFRS 9," Papers 2309.12384, arXiv.org.
    20. Jianqing Fan, 2004. "A selective overview of nonparametric methods in financial econometrics," Papers math/0411034, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trend reversion; Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process; Bubbles and inverse bubbles; Efficient markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:13:y:2015:i:c:p:29-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.