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Macroeconomic conditions and a firm’s investment decisions

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  • Jeon, Haejun
  • Nishihara, Michi

Abstract

We propose a model of a firm’s reversible investment decision with macroeconomic conditions based on optimal switching of a diffusion regime. The switching costs and the cash flow generated from the firm depend on a business cycle alternating via a Markov chain, and the triggers of investment and disinvestment in each state are determined endogenously. Provided the investment costs are cyclical due to high wages and rents in a boom, the investment tends to be delayed in boom, while the disinvestment is likely to be made earlier in terms of the level of switching triggers. This result shows us that the ‘hysteresis’ of investment is a rigorous phenomenon that does not change dramatically depending on business cycle. Yet, the business cycle may still amplify and propagate the exogenous shocks from macroeconomic conditions as far as the persistence of business cycle is concerned. In particular, the investment is deferred and the disinvestment occurs earlier when recession lasts longer and boom ends soon.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeon, Haejun & Nishihara, Michi, 2014. "Macroeconomic conditions and a firm’s investment decisions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 398-409.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:11:y:2014:i:4:p:398-409
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2014.08.002
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    Cited by:

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    2. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Şerban Miclea & Simina Silvana Suciu & Matei Tămăşilă, 2018. "Firm-level investment in the extractive industry from CEE countries: the role of macroeconomic uncertainty and internal conditions," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 193-208, June.
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    4. Liu, Jianhua & Liu, Jingjun & Tang, Zhenyang & Xu, Yue, 2024. "Provincial economic growth and firm excess investment: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real options; Optimal switching; Reversible investment; Macroeconomic conditions; Business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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