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Sell in May and Go Away: Evidence from China

Author

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  • Guo, Biao
  • Luo, Xingguo
  • Zhang, Ziding

Abstract

Using the Chinese stock market data from 1997 to 2013, this paper examines the “Sell in May and Go Away” puzzle first identified by Bouman and Jacobsen (2002). We find strong existence of the Sell in May effect, robust to different regression assumptions, industries, and after controlling for the January or February effect. However, part of the puzzle is subsumed by the seasonal affective disorder effect. We then construct a trading strategy based on this puzzle, and find that it outperforms the buy-and-hold strategy and could resist the market downside risk during large recession periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Biao & Luo, Xingguo & Zhang, Ziding, 2014. "Sell in May and Go Away: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 362-368.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:11:y:2014:i:4:p:362-368
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2014.10.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lu, Jing & Chou, Robin K., 2012. "Does the weather have impacts on returns and trading activities in order-driven stock markets? Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 79-93.
    2. Mark J. Kamstra & Lisa A. Kramer & Maurice D. Levi, 2003. "Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 324-343, March.
    3. Sven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen, 2002. "The Halloween Indicator, "Sell in May and Go Away": Another Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1618-1635, December.
    4. Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2008. "Robust global mood influences in equity pricing," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 145-164, April.
    5. Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang, 2014. "Are stock markets really so inefficient? The case of the “Halloween Indicator”," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 112-121.
    6. Ben Jacobsen & Nuttawat Visaltanachoti, 2009. "The Halloween Effect in U.S. Sectors," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 437-459, August.
    7. Lei Gao & Gerhard Kling, 2005. "Calendar Effects in Chinese Stock Market," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 6(1), pages 75-88, May.
    8. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D., 2012. "A careful re-examination of seasonality in international stock markets: Comment on sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 934-956.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Monika Krawiec & Anna Górska, 2021. "Are soft commodities markets affected by the Halloween effect?," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 67(12), pages 491-499.
    2. Guan, Xian & Saxena, Konark, 2015. "Capital market seasonality: The curious case of large foreign stocks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 85-92.
    3. Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Halloween Effect in developed stock markets: A historical perspective," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 130-138.
    4. Degenhardt, Thomas & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "The “Sell in May” effect: A review and new empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 169-205.
    5. Bing Xiao & Philippe Maillebuau, 2020. "The Seasonal Effect On The Chinese Gold Market Using An Empirical Analysis Of The Shanghai Gold Exchange," Post-Print hal-02905216, HAL.
    6. Chui, David & Wing Cheng, Wui & Chi Chow, Sheung & LI, Ya, 2020. "Eastern Halloween effect: A stochastic dominance approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Thi Hong Van Hoang & Zhenzhen Zhu & Bing Xiao & Wing‐Keung Wong, 2020. "The seasonality of gold prices in China does the risk‐aversion level matter?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 2617-2664, September.
    8. Alex Plastun & Xolani Sibande & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Halloween Effect in Developed Stock Markets: A US Perspective," Working Papers 201914, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Haibin Xie & Qilin Qin & Shouyang Wang, 2016. "Is Halloween Effect a New Puzzle? Evidence from Price Gap," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 19-31, November.
    10. Peter Arendas & Viera Malacka & Maria Schwarzova, 2018. "A Closer Look at the Halloween Effect: The Case of the Dow Jones Industrial Average," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-12, April.
    11. Pierre R. Bertrand & Marie-Eliette Dury & Bing Xiao, 2020. "A study of Chinese market efficiency, Shanghai versus Shenzhen: Evidence based on multifractional models," Post-Print hal-03031766, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sell in May effect; Chinese stock market; Seasonal affective disorder; Downside risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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