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Long-term government bond yields and macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence for Greece during the crisis-era

Author

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  • Chionis, Dionysios
  • Pragidis, Ioannis
  • Schizas, Panagiotis

Abstract

This paper studies the influence of macroeconomic fundamentals and the underlying 10years Greek government bonds. We examine for the period between Q12001 up to end to Q42012, applying four major macroeconomic variables such as Debt to GDP ratio, deficit, inflation and unemployment. We found that, overall, deficit, inflation and unemployment among others, play a more significant role as determinants of the 10-year Greek bond yield, while isolating the period during the crisis macroeconomic factors strengthen their affect to the Greek Debt market.

Suggested Citation

  • Chionis, Dionysios & Pragidis, Ioannis & Schizas, Panagiotis, 2014. "Long-term government bond yields and macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence for Greece during the crisis-era," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 254-258.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:11:y:2014:i:3:p:254-258
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2014.02.003
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    1. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," Working Papers 2012_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
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    8. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
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    11. Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Migiakis, Petros M., 2013. "Heterogeneity of the determinants of euro-area sovereign bond spreads; what does it tell us about financial stability?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4650-4664.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pragidis, I.C. & Aielli, G.P. & Chionis, D. & Schizas, P., 2015. "Contagion effects during financial crisis: Evidence from the Greek sovereign bonds market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 127-138.
    2. Bozena Chovancova & Vladimir Gvozdiak & Zoltan Rozsa & Rahman Ashiqur, 2019. "An Exposure of Commercial Banks in the Terms of an Impact of Government Bondholding with the Context of Its Risks and Implications," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 15(1), pages 173-188.
    3. Tomas Heryan & Jan Ziegelbauer, 2016. "Volatility Of Yields Of Government Bonds Among Giips Countries During The Sovereign Debt Crisis In The Euro Area," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 61-74, March.
    4. Noureddine Benlagha & Wael Hemrit, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter to explain connectedness within the international sovereign bond yields?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 1-21, January.
    5. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Mizoguchi, Tetsuro, 2018. "Fiscal Policy Conditions for Government Budget Stability and Economic Recovery: Comparative Analysis of Japan and Greece," ADBI Working Papers 851, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    6. Paweł Tobera, 2019. "Ocena ratingowa a koszt obsługi długu publicznego w krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej w latach 2005–2017," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 87-109.
    7. Othman, Nooramylia & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Relation between macro economic variables and government securities: Malaysian case," MPRA Paper 110256, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign bonds; Macroeconomic fundamentals; Greek Debt Crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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