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Measuring speculation beyond day trading and bets on lottery-like stocks

Author

Listed:
  • De Bondt, Werner
  • De Winne, Rudy
  • D’Hondt, Catherine

Abstract

We offer a new metric of stock market speculative intensity: the proportion of share purchases that are swiftly reversed, i.e., sold within a short time window. An example of this metric is a 14-day trading horizon. We use it to identify retail traders who aim for quick profits. Based on a vast set of trading accounts in Belgium (2003−2012), we observe that the scale of quick round-trip trading is far above what would be seen with a single focus on day trading. Simply put, amateur speculation is not limited to day traders. Measuring speculative trading through quick round-trip transactions delivers a variety of insights. Amateur speculators are more likely to be male, younger, with lower sophistication and lower levels of wealth. They hold concentrated portfolios and focus their efforts on only a few stocks at a time. They earn low returns, and they are prone to the disposition effect. They are liable to bet on lottery-like stocks, and their passion for trading is persistent.

Suggested Citation

  • De Bondt, Werner & De Winne, Rudy & D’Hondt, Catherine, 2024. "Measuring speculation beyond day trading and bets on lottery-like stocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:96:y:2024:i:pa:s1057521924005647
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103632
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    Keywords

    Amateur speculators; Retail traders; Short-term trading; Day trading; Gambling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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