IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v41y2015icp62-73.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The relationship between the option-implied volatility smile, stock returns and heterogeneous beliefs

Author

Listed:
  • Feng, Shu
  • Zhang, Yi
  • Friesen, Geoffrey C.

Abstract

We study the relationship between stock returns and the implied volatility smile slope of call and put options. Stocks with a steeper put slope earn lower future returns, while stocks with a steeper call slope earn higher future returns. Using dispersion of opinion as a proxy for belief differences, we find that the slope–stock return relation is strongest for stocks with high belief differences. The idiosyncratic component of the put slope fully explains the negative risk-adjusted stock returns. For the call slope, the idiosyncratic component dominates the systematic one, and explains the positive risk-adjusted returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng, Shu & Zhang, Yi & Friesen, Geoffrey C., 2015. "The relationship between the option-implied volatility smile, stock returns and heterogeneous beliefs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 62-73.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:41:y:2015:i:c:p:62-73
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2015.05.027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S105752191500109X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2015.05.027?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shalen, Catherine T, 1993. "Volume, Volatility, and the Dispersion of Beliefs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 405-434.
    2. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    3. Evan W. Anderson & Eric Ghysels & Jennifer L. Juergens, 2005. "Do Heterogeneous Beliefs Matter for Asset Pricing?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 875-924.
    4. Dennis, Patrick & Mayhew, Stewart, 2002. "Risk-Neutral Skewness: Evidence from Stock Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 471-493, September.
    5. Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy & Anna Scherbina, 2002. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2113-2141, October.
    6. Toft, Klaus Bjerre & Prucyk, Brian, 1997. "Options on Leveraged Equity: Theory and Empirical Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1151-1180, July.
    7. Jennifer Conrad & Robert F. Dittmar & Eric Ghysels, 2013. "Ex Ante Skewness and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 85-124, February.
    8. Turan G. Bali & Armen Hovakimian, 2009. "Volatility Spreads and Expected Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1797-1812, November.
    9. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    10. Xing, Yuhang & Zhang, Xiaoyan & Zhao, Rui, 2010. "What Does the Individual Option Volatility Smirk Tell Us About Future Equity Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 641-662, June.
    11. Yan, Shu, 2011. "Jump risk, stock returns, and slope of implied volatility smile," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 216-233, January.
    12. Byeong-Je An & Andrew Ang & Turan G. Bali & Nusret Cakici, 2014. "The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2279-2337, October.
    13. Cremers, Martijn & Weinbaum, David, 2010. "Deviations from Put-Call Parity and Stock Return Predictability," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 335-367, April.
    14. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    15. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    16. Andrea Buraschi & Alexei Jiltsov, 2006. "Model Uncertainty and Option Markets with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2841-2897, December.
    17. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia & Dilip Madan, 2003. "Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 101-143.
    18. Friesen, Geoffrey C. & Zhang, Yi & Zorn, Thomas S., 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Risk-Neutral Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(4), pages 851-872, August.
    19. Williams, Joseph T., 1977. "Capital asset prices with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 219-239, November.
    20. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
    21. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Borochin, Paul & Zhao, Yanhui, 2019. "Belief heterogeneity in the option markets and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Rob Hayward, 2018. "Foreign Exchange Speculation: An Event Study," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13, February.
    3. Vipul Kumar Singh & Pawan Kumar, 2024. "Effectiveness of deterministic option pricing models: new evidence from Nifty and Bank Nifty Index options," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(2), pages 172-189, March.
    4. Broer, Tobias & Kero, Afroditi, 2021. "Collateralization and asset price bubbles when investors disagree about risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Borochin, Paul & Zhao, Yanhui, 2019. "Belief heterogeneity in the option markets and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Kagkadis, Anastasios & Philip, Dennis & Tuneshev, Ruslan, 2018. "Differences in options investors’ expectations and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 315-336.
    3. Guo, Hui & Qiu, Buhui, 2014. "Options-implied variance and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 93-113.
    4. Haehean Park & Baeho Kim & Hyeongsop Shim, 2019. "A smiling bear in the equity options market and the cross‐section of stock returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(11), pages 1360-1382, November.
    5. Przemysław S. Stilger & Alexandros Kostakis & Ser-Huang Poon, 2017. "What Does Risk-Neutral Skewness Tell Us About Future Stock Returns?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1814-1834, June.
    6. Kazuhiro Hiraki & George Skiadopoulos, 2018. "The Contribution of Frictions to Expected Returns," Working Papers 874, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    7. Gkionis, Konstantinos & Kostakis, Alexandros & Skiadopoulos, George & Stilger, Przemyslaw S., 2021. "Positive stock information in out-of-the-money option prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Seo, Sung Won & Kim, Jun Sik, 2015. "The information content of option-implied information for volatility forecasting with investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-120.
    9. Sirio Aramonte & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Samuel Rosen & John W. Schindler, 2022. "Firm-Specific Risk-Neutral Distributions with Options and CDS," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 7018-7033, September.
    10. Huang, Tao & Li, Junye, 2019. "Option-Implied variance asymmetry and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 21-36.
    11. Chin‐Ho Chen, 2021. "Investor sentiment, misreaction, and the skewness‐return relationship," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1427-1455, September.
    12. Chen, Zhuo & Lu, Andrea, 2017. "Slow diffusion of information and price momentum in stocks: Evidence from options markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 98-108.
    13. Lin, Zih-Ying & Chang, Chuang-Chang & Wang, Yaw-Huei, 2018. "The impacts of asymmetric information and short sales on the illiquidity risk premium in the stock option market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 152-165.
    14. Hollstein, Fabian & Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2019. "Asset prices and “the devil(s) you know”," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 20-35.
    15. Byeong-Je An & Andrew Ang & Turan G. Bali & Nusret Cakici, 2014. "The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2279-2337, October.
    16. Sirio Aramonte & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Samuel Rosen & John W. Schindler, 2017. "Firm-Specific Risk-Neutral Distributions : The Role of CDS Spreads," International Finance Discussion Papers 1212, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Yan, Shu, 2011. "Jump risk, stock returns, and slope of implied volatility smile," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 216-233, January.
    18. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, April.
    19. Ho, Hwai-Chung & Tsai, Wei-Che, 2020. "Price delay and post-earnings announcement drift anomalies: The role of option-implied betas," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    20. Elyas Elyasiani & Luca Gambarelli & Silvia Muzzioli, 2015. "Towards a skewness index for the Italian stock market," Department of Economics 0064, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:41:y:2015:i:c:p:62-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.