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Heterogeneous Beliefs and Risk-Neutral Skewness

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  • Friesen, Geoffrey C.
  • Zhang, Yi
  • Zorn, Thomas S.

Abstract

This study tests whether belief differences affect the cross-sectional variation of risk-neutral skewness using data on firm-level stock options traded on the Chicago Board Options Exchange from 2003 to 2006. We find that stocks with greater belief differences have more negative skews, even after controlling for systematic risk and other firm-level variables known to affect skewness. Factor analysis identifies latent variables linked to risk and belief differences. The belief factor explains more variation in the risk-neutral skewness than the risk-based factor. Our results suggest that belief differences may be one of the unexplained firm-specific components affecting skewness.

Suggested Citation

  • Friesen, Geoffrey C. & Zhang, Yi & Zorn, Thomas S., 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Risk-Neutral Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(4), pages 851-872, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:47:y:2012:i:04:p:851-872_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Jing & Han, Qian & Ryu, Doojin & Tang, Jing, 2022. "Does the world smile together? A network analysis of global index option implied volatilities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Harish S. Bhat & Nitesh Kumar, 2015. "Large-Scale Empirical Tests of the Markov Tree Model," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-39, July.
    3. Hao, Jing & Xiong, Xiong, 2021. "Retail investor attention and firms' idiosyncratic risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Kapetanios, George & Konstantinidi, Eirini & Neumann, Michael & Skiadopoulos, George, 2019. "Jumps in option prices and their determinants: Real-time evidence from the E-mini S&P 500 options market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    5. Shih-Ping Feng & Bi-Juan Chang, 2020. "Limits Of Arbitrage, Risk-Neutral Skewness, And Investor Sentiment," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 14(2), pages 61-71.
    6. Kapetanios, George & Konstantinidi, Eirini & Neumann, Michael & Skiadopoulos, George, 2019. "Jumps in option prices and their determinants: Real-time evidence from the E-mini S&P 500 options market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    7. Driouchi, Tarik & So, Raymond H.Y. & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2020. "Investor ambiguity, systemic banking risk and economic activity: The case of too-big-to-fail," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Power, Gabriel J. & Toupin, Dominique, 2023. "The sum of all fears: Forecasting international returns using option-implied risk measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu, 2021. "The SKEW index: Extracting what has been left," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    10. Shu-Fang Yuan, 2024. "Realized higher moments and trading activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 971-1005, April.
    11. Paul Borochin & Jie Yang, 2016. "Options, Equity Risks, and the Value of Capital Structure Adjustments," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-097, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Lina M. Cortés & Javier Perote & Andrés Mora-Valencia, 2017. "Implicit probability distribution for WTI options: The Black Scholes vs. the semi-nonparametric approach," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 15923, Universidad EAFIT.
    13. Borochin, Paul & Zhao, Yanhui, 2019. "Belief heterogeneity in the option markets and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Zhen, Fang, 2020. "Asymmetric signals and skewness," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 32-42.
    15. Silvia Bressan & Alex Weissensteiner, 2023. "Option-Implied Skewness and the Value of Financial Intermediaries," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 207-229, October.
    16. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu, 2021. "The SKEW index: extracting what has been left," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108198, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Cortés, Lina M. & Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Perote, Javier, 2020. "Retrieving the implicit risk neutral density of WTI options with a semi-nonparametric approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    18. Zhen Fang & Zhang Jin E., 2020. "Dissecting skewness under affine jump-diffusions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-19, September.
    19. Przemysław S. Stilger & Alexandros Kostakis & Ser-Huang Poon, 2017. "What Does Risk-Neutral Skewness Tell Us About Future Stock Returns?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1814-1834, June.
    20. Birru, Justin & Wang, Baolian, 2016. "Nominal price illusion," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 578-598.
    21. Liu, Zhangxin (Frank) & Faff, Robert, 2017. "Hitting SKEW for SIX," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 449-464.
    22. Feng, Shu & Zhang, Yi & Friesen, Geoffrey C., 2015. "The relationship between the option-implied volatility smile, stock returns and heterogeneous beliefs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 62-73.

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