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Speculate against speculative demand

Author

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  • ap Gwilym, O.
  • Kita, A.
  • Wang, Q.

Abstract

Measuring individual investors' speculative demand for stocks using the Google search volume index (hereafter “SVI”) on penny stocks, we examine how it relates to the return dynamics of U.S. stock indices. Speculative demand leads to a short-term return reversal. A simple trading strategy that sells a stock index when SVI is high and buys it otherwise generates annual excess returns of up to 20% over the buy-and-hold strategy. Applying the trading strategy to the corresponding ETFs and index futures yields similar results. Transaction costs, liquidity risk and strong time variation of the excess returns can potentially limit the exploitation of arbitrage opportunities.

Suggested Citation

  • ap Gwilym, O. & Kita, A. & Wang, Q., 2014. "Speculate against speculative demand," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 212-221.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:34:y:2014:i:c:p:212-221
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2014.03.001
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yanxi Li & Siu Kai Choy & Mingzhu Wang, 2022. "The potential built‐in supply effect from margin trading in the Chinese stock market," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 835-861, November.
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    4. Agarwal, Shweta & Kumar, Shailendra & Goel, Utkarsh, 2019. "Stock market response to information diffusion through internet sources: A literature review," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 118-131.
    5. Bilal Hafeez & M. Humayun Kabir & Udomsak Wongchoti, 2022. "Are retail investors really passive? Shareholder activism in the digital age," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3-4), pages 423-460, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor attention; Speculative demand; Penny stocks; Market returns; Trading strategy; Limits to arbitrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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