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Recovery Spring, Faltering Fall: March to November 1933

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  • Taylor, Jason E.
  • Neumann, Todd C.

Abstract

Recovery from the Great Depression began in March 1933, simultaneous to Franklin Roosevelt's inauguration. However, the pace of that recovery between that date and the Second World War was extremely uneven with some dramatic starts and stops. Between March and July 1933, manufacturing production rose 78%, production of durable goods was up 199%, total industrial production rose 57%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 71%. Then the economy contracted sharply again beginning in August 1933–the July 1933 level of industrial production was not reached again until August 1935. This paper addresses two questions. What factors were responsible for bringing about the sharp recovery in the spring of 1933 and what factors brought this short-lived economic surge to an end?

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor, Jason E. & Neumann, Todd C., 2016. "Recovery Spring, Faltering Fall: March to November 1933," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 54-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:61:y:2016:i:c:p:54-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2016.03.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Jalil, Andrew J. & Rua, Gisela, 2016. "Inflation expectations and recovery in spring 1933," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 26-50.
    2. Bernardo Candia & Mathieu Pedemonte, 2021. "Export-Led Decay: The Trade Channel in the Gold Standard Era," Working Papers 21-11r, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 08 Nov 2021.
    3. Bent, Peter H., 2020. "Recovery from financial crises in peripheral economies, 1870–1913," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Poelmans, Eline & Taylor, Jason E. & Raisanen, Samuel & Holt, Andrew C., 2022. "Estimates of employment gains attributable to beer legalization in spring 1933," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Liu, Xing & Fishback, Price, 2019. "Effects of New Deal Spending and the downturns of the 1930s on private labor markets in 1939/1940," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 25-54.
    6. Fishback, Price & Fleitas, Sebastian & Rose, Jonathan & Snowden, Ken, 2020. "Collateral Damage: The Impact of Foreclosures on New Home Mortgage Lending in the 1930s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(3), pages 853-885, September.

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