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Cost estimates of the Kigali Amendment to phase-down hydrofluorocarbons

Author

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  • Höglund-Isaksson, Lena
  • Purohit, Pallav
  • Amann, Markus
  • Bertok, Imrich
  • Rafaj, Peter
  • Schöpp, Wolfgang
  • Borken-Kleefeld, Jens

Abstract

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are synthetically produced compounds primarily used for cooling purposes and with strong global warming properties. In this paper, we analyze the global abatement costs for achieving the substantial reductions in HFC consumption agreed in the Kigali Amendment (KA) of the Montreal Protocol from October 2016. We estimate that compliance with the KA is expected to remove 39Pg CO2eq or 61% of global baseline HFC emissions over the entire period 2018–2050. The marginal cost of meeting the KA targets is expected to remain below 60 €/t CO2eq throughout the period in all world regions except for developed regions where legislation to control HFC emissions has already been in place since a few years. For the latter regions, the required HFC consumption reduction is expected to come at a marginal cost increasing steadily to between 90 and 118 €/t CO2eq in 2050. Depending on the expected rate of technological development and the extent to which envisaged electricity savings can be realized, compliance with KA is estimated attainable at a global cost ranging from a net cost-saving of 240 billion € to a net cost of 350 billion € over the entire period 2018 to 2050 and with future global electricity-savings estimated at between 0.2% and 0.7% of expected future electricity consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Höglund-Isaksson, Lena & Purohit, Pallav & Amann, Markus & Bertok, Imrich & Rafaj, Peter & Schöpp, Wolfgang & Borken-Kleefeld, Jens, 2017. "Cost estimates of the Kigali Amendment to phase-down hydrofluorocarbons," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 138-147.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enscpo:v:75:y:2017:i:c:p:138-147
    DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2017.05.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Jeong Won & Kim, Sungjin, 2022. "International Agreements and Global Initiatives for Low-Carbon Cooling," ADBI Working Papers 1343, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Kyuhong Jung & Donghoon Ro & Young-Kwon Park, 2020. "Estimation, and Framework Proposal of Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Fluorinated Substitutes for Ozone-Depleting Substances by Application Area in the Republic of Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-11, August.
    3. Paul Christodoulides & Christakis Christou & Georgios A. Florides, 2024. "Ground Source Heat Pumps in Buildings Revisited and Prospects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-36, July.
    4. Xu Wang & Pallav Purohit, 2022. "Transitioning to low-GWP alternatives with enhanced energy efficiency in cooling non-residential buildings of China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(7), pages 1-28, October.

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