IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v65y2014icp374-386.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Envisioning a renewable electricity future for the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Mai, Trieu
  • Mulcahy, David
  • Hand, M. Maureen
  • Baldwin, Samuel F.

Abstract

This paper presents high renewable electricity penetration scenarios in the United States using detailed capacity expansion modeling that is designed to properly account for the variability and uncertainty of wind and solar resources. The scenarios focus solely on the electricity system, an important sector within the larger energy sector, and demonstrate long-term visions of a U.S. power system where renewable technologies, including biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar, and wind, contribute 80% of 2050 annual electricity, including 49–55% from wind and solar photovoltaic generation. We present the integration challenges of achieving this high penetration and characterize the options to increase grid flexibility to manage variability. Four high renewable pathways are modeled and demonstrate the robustness and diversity of renewable options. We estimate 69–82% annual greenhouse gas emission reductions and 3%–30% incremental electricity price increases associated with reaching 80%-by-2050 renewable electricity relative to reference scenarios. This paper affirms and strengthens similar analysis from the Renewable Electricity Futures study by using an improved model and updated data to better reflect investment and dispatch decisions under current outlooks for the U.S. electricity sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Mai, Trieu & Mulcahy, David & Hand, M. Maureen & Baldwin, Samuel F., 2014. "Envisioning a renewable electricity future for the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 374-386.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:65:y:2014:i:c:p:374-386
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.11.029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544213009912
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2013.11.029?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Lund, Henrik & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2011. "100% Renewable energy systems, climate mitigation and economic growth," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 488-501, February.
    2. Francisco Munoz & Enzo Sauma & Benjamin Hobbs, 2013. "Approximations in power transmission planning: implications for the cost and performance of renewable portfolio standards," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 305-338, June.
    3. Lund, H. & Möller, B. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Dyrelund, A., 2010. "The role of district heating in future renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1381-1390.
    4. Elliston, Ben & Diesendorf, Mark & MacGill, Iain, 2012. "Simulations of scenarios with 100% renewable electricity in the Australian National Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 606-613.
    5. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2011. "The first step towards a 100% renewable energy-system for Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 502-507, February.
    6. Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2009. "Energy system analysis of 100% renewable energy systems—The case of Denmark in years 2030 and 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 524-531.
    7. Nelson, James & Johnston, Josiah & Mileva, Ana & Fripp, Matthias & Hoffman, Ian & Petros-Good, Autumn & Blanco, Christian & Kammen, Daniel M., 2012. "High-resolution modeling of the western North American power system demonstrates low-cost and low-carbon futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 436-447.
    8. Liu, Wen & Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Zhang, Xiliang, 2011. "Potential of renewable energy systems in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 518-525, February.
    9. Cochran, Jaquelin & Mai, Trieu & Bazilian, Morgan, 2014. "Meta-analysis of high penetration renewable energy scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 246-253.
    10. Krajacic, Goran & Duic, Neven & Carvalho, Maria da Graça, 2011. "How to achieve a 100% RES electricity supply for Portugal?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 508-517, February.
    11. Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Lund, Henrik & Connolly, David, 2012. "Limiting biomass consumption for heating in 100% renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 160-168.
    12. Mason, I.G. & Page, S.C. & Williamson, A.G., 2010. "A 100% renewable electricity generation system for New Zealand utilising hydro, wind, geothermal and biomass resources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 3973-3984, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mathiesen, B.V. & Lund, H. & Connolly, D. & Wenzel, H. & Østergaard, P.A. & Möller, B. & Nielsen, S. & Ridjan, I. & Karnøe, P. & Sperling, K. & Hvelplund, F.K., 2015. "Smart Energy Systems for coherent 100% renewable energy and transport solutions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 139-154.
    2. Hansen, Kenneth & Breyer, Christian & Lund, Henrik, 2019. "Status and perspectives on 100% renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 471-480.
    3. Gorman, Will & Mills, Andrew & Wiser, Ryan, 2019. "Improving estimates of transmission capital costs for utility-scale wind and solar projects to inform renewable energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Martin Robinius & Alexander Otto & Philipp Heuser & Lara Welder & Konstantinos Syranidis & David S. Ryberg & Thomas Grube & Peter Markewitz & Ralf Peters & Detlef Stolten, 2017. "Linking the Power and Transport Sectors—Part 1: The Principle of Sector Coupling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-22, July.
    5. Wu, Yunyang & Reedman, Luke J. & Barrett, Mark A. & Spataru, Catalina, 2018. "Comparison of CST with different hours of storage in the Australian National Electricity Market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 487-496.
    6. Victoria, Marta & Gallego-Castillo, Cristobal, 2019. "Hourly-resolution analysis of electricity decarbonization in Spain (2017–2030)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 674-690.
    7. Morvaj, Boran & Evins, Ralph & Carmeliet, Jan, 2017. "Decarbonizing the electricity grid: The impact on urban energy systems, distribution grids and district heating potential," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 125-140.
    8. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Fernandes, Liliana & Ferreira, Paula, 2014. "Renewable energy scenarios in the Portuguese electricity system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 51-57.
    10. Riesz, Jenny & Elliston, Ben, 2016. "Research and deployment priorities for renewable technologies: Quantifying the importance of various renewable technologies for low cost, high renewable electricity systems in an Australian case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 298-308.
    11. Md. Nasimul Islam Maruf, 2019. "Sector Coupling in the North Sea Region—A Review on the Energy System Modelling Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-35, November.
    12. Cochran, Jaquelin & Mai, Trieu & Bazilian, Morgan, 2014. "Meta-analysis of high penetration renewable energy scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 246-253.
    13. Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2012. "The role of Carbon Capture and Storage in a future sustainable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 469-476.
    14. Liu, Wen & Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Zhang, Xiliang, 2011. "Potential of renewable energy systems in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 518-525, February.
    15. David Maya-Drysdale & Louise Krog Jensen & Brian Vad Mathiesen, 2020. "Energy Vision Strategies for the EU Green New Deal: A Case Study of European Cities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, May.
    16. Ćosić, Boris & Krajačić, Goran & Duić, Neven, 2012. "A 100% renewable energy system in the year 2050: The case of Macedonia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 80-87.
    17. Diesendorf, Mark & Elliston, Ben, 2018. "The feasibility of 100% renewable electricity systems: A response to critics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 318-330.
    18. Olav H. Hohmeyer & Sönke Bohm, 2015. "Trends toward 100% renewable electricity supply in Germany and Europe: a paradigm shift in energy policies," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 74-97, January.
    19. Markovska, Natasa & Duić, Neven & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Guzović, Zvonimir & Piacentino, Antonio & Schlör, Holger & Lund, Henrik, 2016. "Addressing the main challenges of energy security in the twenty-first century – Contributions of the conferences on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1504-1512.
    20. Zappa, William & Junginger, Martin & van den Broek, Machteld, 2019. "Is a 100% renewable European power system feasible by 2050?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 1027-1050.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:65:y:2014:i:c:p:374-386. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.