IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v36y2011i4p1848-1854.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A prediction of the exergy loss of the world's mineral reserves in the 21st century

Author

Listed:
  • Valero, Al.
  • Valero, A.

Abstract

This paper makes an assessment of the exergy loss of the main minerals produced in the world throughout the 21st century, namely coal, oil, natural gas, iron, aluminium and copper. The reason for using the exergy analysis as an assessment tool is because it takes into account the main physical features that make a natural resource valuable: concentration, composition and quantity. Furthermore, using the same unit of measurement (energy) means all minerals considered can be compared and added. The future depletion degree of mineral reserves has been predicted with the help of five different scenarios. The first scenario assumes that production of all commodities will follow the well-known Hubbert's bell-shaped curve. The other four models are based on the (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) for fossil fuel consumption and the Hubbert peak model for non-fuel minerals. The results of this study indicate that there might not be enough available resources to satisfy the predicted future mineral demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Valero, Al. & Valero, A., 2011. "A prediction of the exergy loss of the world's mineral reserves in the 21st century," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1848-1854.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:36:y:2011:i:4:p:1848-1854
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.02.041
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544210001040
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2010.02.041?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio & Martínez, Amaya, 2010. "Inventory of the exergy resources on earth including its mineral capital," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 989-995.
    2. Valero, Antonio & Valero, Alicia, 2010. "Exergoecology: A thermodynamic approach for accounting the Earth's mineral capital. The case of bauxite–aluminium and limestone–lime chains," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 229-238.
    3. Ken Gregory & Hans-Holger Rogner, 1998. "Energy Resources and Conversion Technologies for the 21st Century," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 171-230, December.
    4. Craig Bond Hatfield, 1997. "Oil back on the global agenda," Nature, Nature, vol. 387(6629), pages 121-121, May.
    5. Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio & Arauzo, Inmaculada, 2008. "Evolution of the decrease in mineral exergy throughout the 20th century. The case of copper in the US," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 107-115.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. An, Qier & An, Haizhong & Wang, Lang & Huang, Xuan, 2014. "Structural and regional variations of natural resource production in China based on exergy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 67-77.
    2. Leena Grandell & Mikael Höök, 2015. "Assessing Rare Metal Availability Challenges for Solar Energy Technologies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Valero, Antonio & Agudelo, Andrés & Valero, Alicia, 2011. "The crepuscular planet. A model for the exhausted atmosphere and hydrosphere," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 3745-3753.
    4. Harmsen, J.H.M. & Roes, A.L. & Patel, M.K., 2013. "The impact of copper scarcity on the efficiency of 2050 global renewable energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 62-73.
    5. Kai Whiting & Luis Gabriel Carmona & Angeles Carrasco & Tânia Sousa, 2017. "Exergy Replacement Cost of Fossil Fuels: Closing the Carbon Cycle," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-21, July.
    6. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    7. Najdenov, Ivan & Raić, Karlo T. & Kokeza, Gordana, 2012. "Aspects of energy reduction by autogenous copper production in the copper smelting plant Bor," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 376-384.
    8. Guiomar Calvo & Gavin Mudd & Alicia Valero & Antonio Valero, 2016. "Decreasing Ore Grades in Global Metallic Mining: A Theoretical Issue or a Global Reality?," Resources, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-14, November.
    9. Valero, Alicia & Domínguez, Adriana & Valero, Antonio, 2015. "Exergy cost allocation of by-products in the mining and metallurgical industry," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 128-142.
    10. Domínguez, Adriana & Czarnowska, Lucyna & Valero, Alicia & Stanek, Wojciech & Valero, Antonio, 2014. "Thermo-ecological and exergy replacement costs of nickel processing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 103-114.
    11. Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio & Calvo, Guiomar & Ortego, Abel & Ascaso, Sonia & Palacios, Jose-Luis, 2018. "Global material requirements for the energy transition. An exergy flow analysis of decarbonisation pathways," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 1175-1184.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Domínguez, Adriana & Czarnowska, Lucyna & Valero, Alicia & Stanek, Wojciech & Valero, Antonio, 2014. "Thermo-ecological and exergy replacement costs of nickel processing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 103-114.
    2. Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio, 2010. "Physical geonomics: Combining the exergy and Hubbert peak analysis for predicting mineral resources depletion," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 1074-1083.
    3. Domínguez, Adriana & Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio, 2013. "Exergy accounting applied to metallurgical systems: The case of nickel processing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 37-45.
    4. An, Qier & An, Haizhong & Wang, Lang & Huang, Xuan, 2014. "Structural and regional variations of natural resource production in China based on exergy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 67-77.
    5. Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio & Martínez, Amaya, 2010. "Inventory of the exergy resources on earth including its mineral capital," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 989-995.
    6. Valero, Alicia & Domínguez, Adriana & Valero, Antonio, 2015. "Exergy cost allocation of by-products in the mining and metallurgical industry," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 128-142.
    7. Kovalev, Andrey V., 2016. "Misuse of thermodynamic entropy in economics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 129-136.
    8. Valero, Antonio & Agudelo, Andrés & Valero, Alicia, 2011. "The crepuscular planet. A model for the exhausted atmosphere and hydrosphere," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 3745-3753.
    9. Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio & Gómez, Javier B., 2011. "The crepuscular planet. A model for the exhausted continental crust," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 694-707.
    10. Javier Felipe-Andreu & Antonio Valero & Alicia Valero, 2022. "Territorial Inequalities, Ecological and Material Footprints of the Energy Transition: Case Study of the Cantabrian-Mediterranean Bioregion," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, October.
    11. Asbjørn Torvanger & Alv-Arne Grimstad & Erik Lindeberg & Nathan Rive & Kristin Rypdal & Ragnhild Skeie & Jan Fuglestvedt & Petter Tollefsen, 2012. "Quality of geological CO 2 storage to avoid jeopardizing climate targets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 245-260, September.
    12. Persson, Tobias A. & Azar, C. & Johansson, D. & Lindgren, K., 2007. "Major oil exporters may profit rather than lose, in a carbon-constrained world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6346-6353, December.
    13. Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio & Stanek, Wojciech, 2018. "Assessing the exergy degradation of the natural capital: From Szargut's updated reference environment to the new thermoecological-cost methodology," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1140-1149.
    14. Qi, Hai & Dong, Zhiliang & Dong, Shaohui & Sun, Xiaotian & Zhao, Yiran & Li, Yu, 2021. "Extended exergy accounting for smelting and pressing of metals industry in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Jean-François Fagnart & Marc Germain & Benjamin Peeters, 2020. "Can the Energy Transition Be Smooth? A General Equilibrium Approach to the EROEI," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-29, February.
    16. Torres, César & Valero, Antonio & Valero, Alicia, 2013. "Exergoecology as a tool for ecological modelling. The case of the US food production chain," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 255(C), pages 21-28.
    17. Jamali-Zghal, N. & Le Corre, O. & Lacarrière, B., 2014. "Mineral resource assessment: Compliance between emergy and exergy respecting Odum's hierarchy concept," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 208-219.
    18. 'Eric Herbert & and Gael Giraud & Aur'elie Louis-Napol'eon & Christophe Goupil, 2022. "Macroeconomic Dynamics in a finite world: the Thermodynamic Potential Approach," Papers 2204.02038, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    19. Sciubba, Enrico, 2024. "A possible reconciliation between exergy analysis, thermo-economics and the resource cost of externalities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    20. Kai Whiting & Luis Gabriel Carmona & Angeles Carrasco & Tânia Sousa, 2017. "Exergy Replacement Cost of Fossil Fuels: Closing the Carbon Cycle," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-21, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:36:y:2011:i:4:p:1848-1854. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.